MarketEdge AM Comments

Jul 26, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were mostly lower overnight.  September corn finished the overnight session off 7 ½ cents, settling at 5.50.  August soybeans were unchanged, settling at 15.1550.  In the outside markets, as of 7:50am:  The US Dollar Index is off 152 points, trading at 101.197.  September crude oil is off 91 cents, trading at $78.72 per barrel.  Precious metals are mixed.  Industrial metals are higher, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 70 points, trading at 35,534.  Profit-taking in wheat futures and rains in Minnesota weighed on corn and soybean futures overnight.  Since Monday’s knee-jerk market reaction to an uptick in hostility between Russia and Ukraine, feedgrains have trended lower as Russia’s bombing campaign on Ukraine’s ports has slowed up a bit and futures succumbed to profit-taking.  In the last 24-hours, decent rains fell across the bulk of Southern Minnesota.  Yes, solid precipitation was limited to this area and the rest of the Corn Belt could still use a drink and is dealing with extreme heat, however, “rain makes grain” as far as Chicago is concerned and Southern Minnesota is an important player in the Corn Belt.  Extended forecast models for the Corn Belt now appear less threatening than they did one week ago.  The Corn Belt will have to deal with extreme heat and little precipitation in the near-term, but the 6-10 day and 11-15 day forecast models call for cooling temperatures and better chances for precipitation.  Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, sold 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 5000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 23,150 contracts of corn, net long 103,970 contracts of soybeans, and net short 21,010 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at the key 5.50 mark, followed by yesterday’s low, 5.4550, and then Friday’s low, 5.2250.  Initial resistance is at 5.5725, the overnight high, followed by the one-month high charted on Monday, 5.6450, and then the psychological 6.00 level.  August soybeans find initial support at 15.06, the overnight low, followed by the psychological 15.00 mark, and then 14.7425, last week’s low charted on Tuesday.  Initial resistance is at 15.2225, the overnight high, followed by the contract high charted on Monday, 15.37.  Opening calls are mixed/lower.
Have a great Wednesday.

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