MarketEdge AM Comments

Jul 03, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight.  September corn finished the overnight session up 4 ¾ cents, settling at 4.9325.  August soybeans were up 52 ½ cents, settling at 14.9450.  In the outside markets, as of 8:00am:  The US Dollar Index is up 93 points, trading at 103.005.  August crude oil is up 69 cents, trading at $71.33 per barrel.  Precious metals are mixed.  Industrial metals are higher, except aluminum.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 75 points, trading at 34,568.  After Friday’s surprising acreage figures from USDA, soybeans have shot higher like a rocket and understandably so.  The lowest trade estimate for planted soybean acreage was 87 million acres and USDA shockingly reported only 83.5 million acres of soybeans.  Plugging the new soybean acreage figure into the current balance sheet without changing any of the demand categories creates an extremely tight ending stocks figure.  Overnight, corn futures were supported by the rally in the soybean complex despite the fact that the planted corn acreage figure from USDA was dang near just as big of a curve ball as the planted soybean acreage figure, and not in a good way.  The highest trade estimate for planted corn acreage was 93 million acres.  USDA reported 94.1 million acres.  Not only were the acreage figures on Friday’s report surprising, but overnight trading volume in the midst of a holiday weekend was surprisingly high.  Speaking of the holiday, the Chicago Board of Trade will be closed both overnight and tomorrow in observance of Independence Day.  Trading will resume on Wednesday with a good old-fashioned morning open as there is no overnight trade on the fourth either.  On Friday, the funds sold 27,000 contracts of corn, bought 20,000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 5000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net long 14,760 contracts of corn, net long 104,060 contracts of soybeans, and net short 73,930 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.99, followed very closely by the psychological 5.00 mark, and then 5.50.  Initial support lies at 4.8325, the overnight low that is also a 21-month contract low.  August soybeans face initial resistance at the psychological 15.00 level, followed by the four-month high charted overnight, 15.0475, and then 15.1850, the one-year high charted on December 30th.  Initial support lies at 14.4150, the overnight low, followed by the psychological 14.00 mark.  Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Monday and a wonderful celebration of our nation’s independence!

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Jul 31, 2023
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Jul 28, 2023
​Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.