MarketEdge AM Comments
Dec 12, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn futures finished the overnight session slightly higher while soybean futures were slightly lower. March corn was up 2 ¼ cents, settling at 4.8375. January soybeans were off a penny and a quarter, settling at 13.3475. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 360 points, trading at 103.736. January crude oil is off 46 cents, trading at $70.86 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 101 points, trading at 36,907. Soybean futures had traded higher overnight before running out of gas toward the end of the session. The short-term forecast for Central, Northern, and Western Brazil is hot and dry, which is supportive to futures, however, the 6-15 day forecast calls for better chances of precipitation. AgRural projects Brazilian soybean planting at 91% complete. This figure is four points behind last year at this time, but significant progress has been made in the last couple of weeks to get to this point. Traders have now shifted their focus from planting conditions/progress to how weather will impact the crop during the growing season. In other South American news, newly inaugurated Argentine President Javier Milei is expected to announce sweeping economic changes this afternoon after the markets close. In anticipation, Argentina has temporarily suspended its grain export register. Milei is expected to devalue the Argentine peso along with other economic measures in an attempt to get a handle on out-of-control inflation. Weekly soybean export inspections reported yesterday were quite awful, once again, falling well below last year at this time and the five-year average. Weekly soybean export inspections have not been at five-year average levels for at least a month. Yesterday, the funds sold 4000 contracts of corn, bought 8000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 163,830 contracts of corn, net long 40,730 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,530 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at 4.80, followed by the contract low charted on November 29th, 4.7050. Initial resistance is at 4.8475, the overnight high, followed by 4.9375, the nearly one-month high charted on Wednesday, and then 4.9650, the 1 ½ month high charted on November 15th. January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.3275, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 12.92, the two-month low charted on Thursday. Initial resistance is at 13.44, the overnight high, followed by 13.52, the two-plus week high charted on November 29th, and then 13.8925, the nearly one-month high charted on November 21st. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Tuesday.
Good Morning. Corn futures finished the overnight session slightly higher while soybean futures were slightly lower. March corn was up 2 ¼ cents, settling at 4.8375. January soybeans were off a penny and a quarter, settling at 13.3475. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 360 points, trading at 103.736. January crude oil is off 46 cents, trading at $70.86 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 101 points, trading at 36,907. Soybean futures had traded higher overnight before running out of gas toward the end of the session. The short-term forecast for Central, Northern, and Western Brazil is hot and dry, which is supportive to futures, however, the 6-15 day forecast calls for better chances of precipitation. AgRural projects Brazilian soybean planting at 91% complete. This figure is four points behind last year at this time, but significant progress has been made in the last couple of weeks to get to this point. Traders have now shifted their focus from planting conditions/progress to how weather will impact the crop during the growing season. In other South American news, newly inaugurated Argentine President Javier Milei is expected to announce sweeping economic changes this afternoon after the markets close. In anticipation, Argentina has temporarily suspended its grain export register. Milei is expected to devalue the Argentine peso along with other economic measures in an attempt to get a handle on out-of-control inflation. Weekly soybean export inspections reported yesterday were quite awful, once again, falling well below last year at this time and the five-year average. Weekly soybean export inspections have not been at five-year average levels for at least a month. Yesterday, the funds sold 4000 contracts of corn, bought 8000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 163,830 contracts of corn, net long 40,730 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,530 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at 4.80, followed by the contract low charted on November 29th, 4.7050. Initial resistance is at 4.8475, the overnight high, followed by 4.9375, the nearly one-month high charted on Wednesday, and then 4.9650, the 1 ½ month high charted on November 15th. January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.3275, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 12.92, the two-month low charted on Thursday. Initial resistance is at 13.44, the overnight high, followed by 13.52, the two-plus week high charted on November 29th, and then 13.8925, the nearly one-month high charted on November 21st. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Tuesday.