MarketEdge AM Comments
Dec 08, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. It is Report Day. At 11am, USDA will release the December WASDE Report. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up 1 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8975. January soybeans were up 11 cents, settling at 13.2275. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 290 points, trading at 103.831. January crude oil is up $1.52, trading at $70.86 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are also mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 144 points, trading at 36,022. Soybean futures continued to trade higher overnight following yesterday’s bullish outside day key reversal. A bullish outside day key reversal occurs when the high and low of the session exceed those of the previous two sessions and the close is higher than the previous two closes, as well. Typically, an outside day key reversal on the charts indicates a change in the short-term trend of futures. Historical research conducted by Iowa State University finds that outside day key reversals are 70-80% accurate in predicting short-term price trends. Other news regarding grains and oilseeds is limited this morning. If USDA makes any changes to the balance sheets on this morning’s WASDE Report, they are expected to be minimal, which is typical for the December report. It is rare for USDA to deviate much from the November figures on the December Report. Usually, meaningful changes are saved for the important January WASDE Report. As with any government report, though, one should not get too ahead of oneself in trying to predict what will be published ahead of time. We will all find out together where USDA stands at 11am. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 206,020 contracts of corn, net long 58,150 contracts of soybeans, and net short 102,070 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, March corn faces initial resistance at 4.90, the overnight high, followed by the three-week high charted on Wednesday, 4.9375, and then 4.9650, the one-plus month high charted on November 15th. Initial support lies at 4.83, yesterday’s low, followed by 4.7050, the contract low charted last Wednesday. January soybeans face initial resistance at the overnight high, 13.24, followed by last week’s high charted on Wednesday, 13.52. Initial support lies at 13.1050, the overnight low, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 12.92, the nearly two-month low charted yesterday. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. It is Report Day. At 11am, USDA will release the December WASDE Report. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up 1 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8975. January soybeans were up 11 cents, settling at 13.2275. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 290 points, trading at 103.831. January crude oil is up $1.52, trading at $70.86 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are also mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 144 points, trading at 36,022. Soybean futures continued to trade higher overnight following yesterday’s bullish outside day key reversal. A bullish outside day key reversal occurs when the high and low of the session exceed those of the previous two sessions and the close is higher than the previous two closes, as well. Typically, an outside day key reversal on the charts indicates a change in the short-term trend of futures. Historical research conducted by Iowa State University finds that outside day key reversals are 70-80% accurate in predicting short-term price trends. Other news regarding grains and oilseeds is limited this morning. If USDA makes any changes to the balance sheets on this morning’s WASDE Report, they are expected to be minimal, which is typical for the December report. It is rare for USDA to deviate much from the November figures on the December Report. Usually, meaningful changes are saved for the important January WASDE Report. As with any government report, though, one should not get too ahead of oneself in trying to predict what will be published ahead of time. We will all find out together where USDA stands at 11am. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 206,020 contracts of corn, net long 58,150 contracts of soybeans, and net short 102,070 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, March corn faces initial resistance at 4.90, the overnight high, followed by the three-week high charted on Wednesday, 4.9375, and then 4.9650, the one-plus month high charted on November 15th. Initial support lies at 4.83, yesterday’s low, followed by 4.7050, the contract low charted last Wednesday. January soybeans face initial resistance at the overnight high, 13.24, followed by last week’s high charted on Wednesday, 13.52. Initial support lies at 13.1050, the overnight low, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 12.92, the nearly two-month low charted yesterday. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.