MarketEdge AM Comments
Dec 07, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.87. January soybeans were up 9 cents, settling at 13.0450. In the outside markets, as of 7:50am: The US Dollar Index is off 340 points, trading at 103.814. January crude oil is up 80 cents, trading at $70.18 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except silver. Industrial metals are higher, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 47 points, trading at 36,065. Overnight, soybean futures rebounded after charting nearly two-month lows on the open of the session. Corn futures also recovered following yesterday’s sell-off. Recent export demand continues to be supportive to futures. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. This week’s report featured decent weekly sales bookings for both corn and soybeans but nothing incredibly impressive. Last week, 1,288,900MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations, is 33% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 17% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,086,100MT. This figure is a marketing-year high, is up noticeably from the previous week’s shipments, and is 65% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Colombia, Japan, and Taiwan. Last week, 1,517,600MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates, is 20% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 21% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,335,300MT. This figure is 10% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 26% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Spain, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Germany. Tomorrow morning, USDA will release the December WASDE Report. If there are any adjustments tomorrow from the November report, they are expected to be minimal, at best. The government rarely makes any meaningful changes from the November report in December, however, one can never be too sure what USDA has up their sleeve. Typically, the December WASDE Report is a snooze-fest. The REAL supply and demand report of import is the “Big-Kahuna” January report. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, sold 5000 contracts of soybeans, and were net even on wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 208,020 contracts of corn, net long 53,150 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,070 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.83, followed by the contract low charted last Wednesday, 4.7050. Initial resistance is at 4.8875, the overnight high, followed by the three-week high charted yesterday, 4.9375, and then 4.9650, the one-plus month high charted on November 15th. January soybeans find initial support at the nearly two-month low charted overnight, 12.92, followed by 12.7025, the double-low charted on October 11th and 12th, which is also a five-month contract low. Initial resistance is at 13.10, the overnight high, followed by 13.52, the two-week high charted last Wednesday. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.87. January soybeans were up 9 cents, settling at 13.0450. In the outside markets, as of 7:50am: The US Dollar Index is off 340 points, trading at 103.814. January crude oil is up 80 cents, trading at $70.18 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except silver. Industrial metals are higher, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 47 points, trading at 36,065. Overnight, soybean futures rebounded after charting nearly two-month lows on the open of the session. Corn futures also recovered following yesterday’s sell-off. Recent export demand continues to be supportive to futures. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. This week’s report featured decent weekly sales bookings for both corn and soybeans but nothing incredibly impressive. Last week, 1,288,900MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations, is 33% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 17% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,086,100MT. This figure is a marketing-year high, is up noticeably from the previous week’s shipments, and is 65% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Colombia, Japan, and Taiwan. Last week, 1,517,600MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates, is 20% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 21% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,335,300MT. This figure is 10% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 26% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Spain, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Germany. Tomorrow morning, USDA will release the December WASDE Report. If there are any adjustments tomorrow from the November report, they are expected to be minimal, at best. The government rarely makes any meaningful changes from the November report in December, however, one can never be too sure what USDA has up their sleeve. Typically, the December WASDE Report is a snooze-fest. The REAL supply and demand report of import is the “Big-Kahuna” January report. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, sold 5000 contracts of soybeans, and were net even on wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 208,020 contracts of corn, net long 53,150 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,070 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.83, followed by the contract low charted last Wednesday, 4.7050. Initial resistance is at 4.8875, the overnight high, followed by the three-week high charted yesterday, 4.9375, and then 4.9650, the one-plus month high charted on November 15th. January soybeans find initial support at the nearly two-month low charted overnight, 12.92, followed by 12.7025, the double-low charted on October 11th and 12th, which is also a five-month contract low. Initial resistance is at 13.10, the overnight high, followed by 13.52, the two-week high charted last Wednesday. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Thursday.