MarketEdge AM Comments
Dec 28, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures finished the overnight session slightly higher. Since First Notice Day for January soybean futures is tomorrow, the March soybean contract will be reported on as the “nearby” contract for the purposes of this commentary starting today. Remember, if you have any hedge-to-arrive or basis contracts versus January soybean futures, you must either price or roll them before the close of the Chicago Board of Trade tomorrow. March corn finished the overnight session up a penny and a half, settling at 4.78. March soybeans were up 3 cents, settling at 13.2350. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 160 points, trading at 100.822. February crude oil is off $1.05, trading at $73.06 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 36 points, trading at 37,970. Corn and soybean futures received a little bit of support overnight, but interesting fresh fundamental news remains incredibly light as does trading volume. Corn futures did get a little bit of a bump overnight from news that a cargo ship in the Black Sea hit a mine. Wheat futures were higher in response and this supported feed-grains, in general. The Brazilian forecast has not changed from yesterday and still looks beneficial for the end of the growing season. Certainly, weather problems earlier in the season will impact production, however, further production losses should be mitigated if the current forecast delivers. It is the second-to-last trading day of the 2023 calendar year. Barring any major unforeseen event to shake things up, traders expect quiet, low-volume, “holiday-style” trading to wrap up 2023. The Export Sales Report will be released tomorrow instead of today since government offices were closed on Monday for Christmas. Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 180,360 contracts of corn, net long 9490 contracts of soybeans, and net short 60,880 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the double-low charted yesterday and overnight, 4.7450, followed by the double-low charted on Tuesday and Friday, 4.7150, and then the contract low charted last Wednesday, 4.6825. Initial resistance is at the 1 ½ week high charted on Tuesday, 4.81, followed by the 4.85 area, and then 4.9375, the six-week high charted on December 6th. March soybeans find initial support at 13.17, the overnight low, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 12.9825, the 2 ½ month low charted on Friday. Initial resistance is at 13.24, the overnight high, followed by the 13.40 area, and then 13.60, the four-week high charted on December 12th. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures finished the overnight session slightly higher. Since First Notice Day for January soybean futures is tomorrow, the March soybean contract will be reported on as the “nearby” contract for the purposes of this commentary starting today. Remember, if you have any hedge-to-arrive or basis contracts versus January soybean futures, you must either price or roll them before the close of the Chicago Board of Trade tomorrow. March corn finished the overnight session up a penny and a half, settling at 4.78. March soybeans were up 3 cents, settling at 13.2350. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 160 points, trading at 100.822. February crude oil is off $1.05, trading at $73.06 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 36 points, trading at 37,970. Corn and soybean futures received a little bit of support overnight, but interesting fresh fundamental news remains incredibly light as does trading volume. Corn futures did get a little bit of a bump overnight from news that a cargo ship in the Black Sea hit a mine. Wheat futures were higher in response and this supported feed-grains, in general. The Brazilian forecast has not changed from yesterday and still looks beneficial for the end of the growing season. Certainly, weather problems earlier in the season will impact production, however, further production losses should be mitigated if the current forecast delivers. It is the second-to-last trading day of the 2023 calendar year. Barring any major unforeseen event to shake things up, traders expect quiet, low-volume, “holiday-style” trading to wrap up 2023. The Export Sales Report will be released tomorrow instead of today since government offices were closed on Monday for Christmas. Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 180,360 contracts of corn, net long 9490 contracts of soybeans, and net short 60,880 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the double-low charted yesterday and overnight, 4.7450, followed by the double-low charted on Tuesday and Friday, 4.7150, and then the contract low charted last Wednesday, 4.6825. Initial resistance is at the 1 ½ week high charted on Tuesday, 4.81, followed by the 4.85 area, and then 4.9375, the six-week high charted on December 6th. March soybeans find initial support at 13.17, the overnight low, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 12.9825, the 2 ½ month low charted on Friday. Initial resistance is at 13.24, the overnight high, followed by the 13.40 area, and then 13.60, the four-week high charted on December 12th. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Thursday.