MarketEdge AM Comments
Aug 15, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.73. November soybeans were off 5 ¼ cents, settling at 13.2075. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 110 points, trading at 103.081. September crude oil is off $1.19, trading at $81.32 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 269 points, trading at 35,102. Larger than expected improvements to the national corn and soybean crop conditions ratings pressured futures overnight. Traders were expecting 1% improvements to both the national corn and soybean crop conditions ratings. Instead, USDA improved the national corn crop condition rating by two points and the national soybean crop condition rating by five points, week-over-week. The new national corn crop condition rating is 59% good to excellent. This figure is two points ahead of last year at this time and is four points below the five-year average. The new national soybean crop condition rating is 59% good to excellent. This figure is one point ahead of last year at this time and is two points below the five-year average. Along with reacting to the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions Report, futures are also facing headwinds from the outside markets. Although the US Dollar Index was weaker overnight, crude oil, most commodities, and equity markets were all lower overnight, pressuring corn and soybean futures. The National Oilseed Processors’ Association will release July crush data today. July soybean crush is expected to be reported at 171.3 million bushels. This figure is 6.3 million bushels higher than June’s crush figure and is 1.1 million bushels higher than last July’s crush figure. The range of trade estimates is 165.1-178 million bushels. Yesterday, the funds were net even on corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 44,050 contracts of corn, net long 66,980 contracts of soybeans, and net short 77,145 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at the new two-year contract low charted yesterday, 4.6875. Initial resistance is at 4.80, followed by 4.9475, Friday’s high, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.1450, followed by the psychological 13.00 level, and then 12.8225, the 1 ½ month low charted one week ago. Initial resistance is at Friday’s high, 13.38, followed by 13.50, and then the July 31st chart gap, 13.7550-13.79. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.73. November soybeans were off 5 ¼ cents, settling at 13.2075. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 110 points, trading at 103.081. September crude oil is off $1.19, trading at $81.32 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 269 points, trading at 35,102. Larger than expected improvements to the national corn and soybean crop conditions ratings pressured futures overnight. Traders were expecting 1% improvements to both the national corn and soybean crop conditions ratings. Instead, USDA improved the national corn crop condition rating by two points and the national soybean crop condition rating by five points, week-over-week. The new national corn crop condition rating is 59% good to excellent. This figure is two points ahead of last year at this time and is four points below the five-year average. The new national soybean crop condition rating is 59% good to excellent. This figure is one point ahead of last year at this time and is two points below the five-year average. Along with reacting to the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions Report, futures are also facing headwinds from the outside markets. Although the US Dollar Index was weaker overnight, crude oil, most commodities, and equity markets were all lower overnight, pressuring corn and soybean futures. The National Oilseed Processors’ Association will release July crush data today. July soybean crush is expected to be reported at 171.3 million bushels. This figure is 6.3 million bushels higher than June’s crush figure and is 1.1 million bushels higher than last July’s crush figure. The range of trade estimates is 165.1-178 million bushels. Yesterday, the funds were net even on corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 44,050 contracts of corn, net long 66,980 contracts of soybeans, and net short 77,145 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at the new two-year contract low charted yesterday, 4.6875. Initial resistance is at 4.80, followed by 4.9475, Friday’s high, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.1450, followed by the psychological 13.00 level, and then 12.8225, the 1 ½ month low charted one week ago. Initial resistance is at Friday’s high, 13.38, followed by 13.50, and then the July 31st chart gap, 13.7550-13.79. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.