MarketEdge AM Comments
Aug 09, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 3 ½ cents, settling at 4.8925. November soybeans were up 11 cents, settling at 13.17. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 40 points, trading at 102.491. September crude oil is up 81 cents, trading at $83.73 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are lower, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 51 points, trading at 35,446. Grain and oilseed futures were mostly higher overnight due to short-covering with very light trading volume. There is a general lack of fresh news regarding grains and oilseeds to report this morning. The extended weather forecast for the Corn Belt for the balance of the month of August continues to be perceived as non-threatening and positive for crop development in Chicago. Thus, the current forecast is weighing on futures. To counteract the bearish forecast, when it comes to technicals, the behavior of futures yesterday and overnight suggests that lows charted earlier this week should hold for now, depending on how the big report shakes out on Friday. Friday morning, at 11am, USDA will release the monthly WASDE Report. Yield estimates are the big figures to watch for on Friday’s report. For corn, the range of trade estimates for yield are extremely wide, 172.4bpa-178bpa. With that wide of a range of trade expectations, it really is anybody’s guess what USDA will come up with on Friday and the implications to the balance sheet, one way or another, could be dramatic. The range of trade estimates for soybean yield is much smaller, however, the current carryout projection is already extremely tight, so the soybean balance sheet cannot handle much of a drop in yield. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 1000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 3675 contracts of corn, net long 77,315 contracts of soybeans, and net short 65,020 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.8950, followed by Friday’s high, 4.9350, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.76, the four-week low charted on Monday, followed by the double-low charted on July 12th and 13th that is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. November soybeans face initial resistance at the overnight high, 13.23, followed by 13.50, and then the July 31st chart gap, 13.7550-13.79. Initial support lies at the psychological 13.00 level, followed by the six-week low charted yesterday, 12.8225, and then the June 28th low, 12.5675. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Wednesday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 3 ½ cents, settling at 4.8925. November soybeans were up 11 cents, settling at 13.17. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 40 points, trading at 102.491. September crude oil is up 81 cents, trading at $83.73 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are lower, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 51 points, trading at 35,446. Grain and oilseed futures were mostly higher overnight due to short-covering with very light trading volume. There is a general lack of fresh news regarding grains and oilseeds to report this morning. The extended weather forecast for the Corn Belt for the balance of the month of August continues to be perceived as non-threatening and positive for crop development in Chicago. Thus, the current forecast is weighing on futures. To counteract the bearish forecast, when it comes to technicals, the behavior of futures yesterday and overnight suggests that lows charted earlier this week should hold for now, depending on how the big report shakes out on Friday. Friday morning, at 11am, USDA will release the monthly WASDE Report. Yield estimates are the big figures to watch for on Friday’s report. For corn, the range of trade estimates for yield are extremely wide, 172.4bpa-178bpa. With that wide of a range of trade expectations, it really is anybody’s guess what USDA will come up with on Friday and the implications to the balance sheet, one way or another, could be dramatic. The range of trade estimates for soybean yield is much smaller, however, the current carryout projection is already extremely tight, so the soybean balance sheet cannot handle much of a drop in yield. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 1000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 3675 contracts of corn, net long 77,315 contracts of soybeans, and net short 65,020 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.8950, followed by Friday’s high, 4.9350, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.76, the four-week low charted on Monday, followed by the double-low charted on July 12th and 13th that is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. November soybeans face initial resistance at the overnight high, 13.23, followed by 13.50, and then the July 31st chart gap, 13.7550-13.79. Initial support lies at the psychological 13.00 level, followed by the six-week low charted yesterday, 12.8225, and then the June 28th low, 12.5675. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Wednesday.