MarketEdge AM Comments
Aug 08, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 2 cents, settling at 4.8025. November soybeans were off 15 ¾ cents, settling at 12.8625. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 660 points, trading at 102.702. September crude oil is off $1.96, trading at $79.98 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 259 points, trading at 35,295. Corn and soybean futures were under pressure overnight from outside market influence and improving crop conditions ratings on yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report. The US Dollar Index traded sharply higher overnight. As a result, raw commodities, across the board, and equity markets are lower. Yesterday afternoon, USDA released the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions Report. The national corn crop condition rating improved two points from last week, to 57% good to excellent. This figure is only one point below last year at this time and is seven points below the five-year average. The national soybean crop condition rating improved by two points from last week, to 54% good to excellent. This figure is five points below last year at this time and is nine points below the five-year average. The current weather forecast for the Corn Belt is also weighing on futures. Extended forecast models for the key growing regions of the US call for moderate temperatures and ample precipitation for the month of August. Of course, there are areas that are in desperate need of rainfall, however, Chicago is looking at the bigger picture and they feel confident that the crop is there and weather is non-threatening to round out the growing season. Yesterday, the fund sold 2000 contracts of corn, sold 9000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 1675 contracts of corn, net long 76,315 contracts of soybeans, and net short 64,020 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at 4.76, yesterday’s low, followed closely by the double-low charted on July 12th and 13th that is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. Initial resistance is at 4.85, the overnight high, followed by Friday’s high, 4.9350, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans plunged below the key, psychological 13.00 mark overnight. Below 13.00, further support is found at the five-week low charted overnight, 12.83, followed by 12.5675, the 1 ½ month low charted on June 28th. Initial resistance is at 13.0750, the overnight high, followed by 13.50, and then the chart gap from July 31st, 13.7550-13.79. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 2 cents, settling at 4.8025. November soybeans were off 15 ¾ cents, settling at 12.8625. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 660 points, trading at 102.702. September crude oil is off $1.96, trading at $79.98 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 259 points, trading at 35,295. Corn and soybean futures were under pressure overnight from outside market influence and improving crop conditions ratings on yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report. The US Dollar Index traded sharply higher overnight. As a result, raw commodities, across the board, and equity markets are lower. Yesterday afternoon, USDA released the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions Report. The national corn crop condition rating improved two points from last week, to 57% good to excellent. This figure is only one point below last year at this time and is seven points below the five-year average. The national soybean crop condition rating improved by two points from last week, to 54% good to excellent. This figure is five points below last year at this time and is nine points below the five-year average. The current weather forecast for the Corn Belt is also weighing on futures. Extended forecast models for the key growing regions of the US call for moderate temperatures and ample precipitation for the month of August. Of course, there are areas that are in desperate need of rainfall, however, Chicago is looking at the bigger picture and they feel confident that the crop is there and weather is non-threatening to round out the growing season. Yesterday, the fund sold 2000 contracts of corn, sold 9000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 1675 contracts of corn, net long 76,315 contracts of soybeans, and net short 64,020 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at 4.76, yesterday’s low, followed closely by the double-low charted on July 12th and 13th that is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. Initial resistance is at 4.85, the overnight high, followed by Friday’s high, 4.9350, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans plunged below the key, psychological 13.00 mark overnight. Below 13.00, further support is found at the five-week low charted overnight, 12.83, followed by 12.5675, the 1 ½ month low charted on June 28th. Initial resistance is at 13.0750, the overnight high, followed by 13.50, and then the chart gap from July 31st, 13.7550-13.79. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.