MarketEdge AM Comments
Aug 04, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 8 cents, settling at 4.8875. November soybeans were up 16 cents, settling at 13.4125. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 40 points, trading at 102.498. September crude oil is up 18 cents, trading at $81.73 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except palladium. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 17 points, trading at 35,329. Grains and oilseeds received a shot in the arm overnight from developments in the Black Sea Region. Overnight, Ukrainian drones attacked a ship in the important Russian port of Novorossiysk. This was, no doubt, in retaliation for Russia’s drone strike on a Ukrainian export facility in Izmail on the Danube River earlier this week. Unfortunately, as we witnessed following the strike on Izmail, these Black Sea newsflashes typically only garner a short-term reaction, however, we will take what we can get at this point. Aside from war stories from Ukraine/Russia, there is a general lack of bullish news out there right now for traders to chew on. The forecast for the Corn Belt for the rest of the month of August continues to be next-to-ideal for crop development. Although some areas are certainly due for some rainfall, the extended forecast allows good chances for precipitation for everybody throughout the next few weeks. Things may not be “perfect” in your backyard, but keep in mind that Chicago doesn’t care what is growing in your back 40, they tend to focus on the bigger picture. The bigger picture shows that this year’s crop may not be a record-breaker, but things aren’t really terrible across the board. Yesterday, the funds sold 6000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 8000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 30,945 contracts of corn, net long 71,785 contracts of soybeans, and net short 99,110 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at the double-low from yesterday and overnight, 4.8025, followed by the double-low from July 12th and 13th that is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. Initial resistance is at the overnight high, 4.9350, followed by the psychological 5.00 mark, and then 5.1225, Wednesday’s high. November soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.2250, followed by the one-month low charted Wednesday, 13.15, and then the psychological 13.00 level. Initial resistance is at 13.4575, the overnight high, followed by 13.54, Wednesday’s high, and then Sunday night’s chart gap, 13.7550-13.79. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 8 cents, settling at 4.8875. November soybeans were up 16 cents, settling at 13.4125. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 40 points, trading at 102.498. September crude oil is up 18 cents, trading at $81.73 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except palladium. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 17 points, trading at 35,329. Grains and oilseeds received a shot in the arm overnight from developments in the Black Sea Region. Overnight, Ukrainian drones attacked a ship in the important Russian port of Novorossiysk. This was, no doubt, in retaliation for Russia’s drone strike on a Ukrainian export facility in Izmail on the Danube River earlier this week. Unfortunately, as we witnessed following the strike on Izmail, these Black Sea newsflashes typically only garner a short-term reaction, however, we will take what we can get at this point. Aside from war stories from Ukraine/Russia, there is a general lack of bullish news out there right now for traders to chew on. The forecast for the Corn Belt for the rest of the month of August continues to be next-to-ideal for crop development. Although some areas are certainly due for some rainfall, the extended forecast allows good chances for precipitation for everybody throughout the next few weeks. Things may not be “perfect” in your backyard, but keep in mind that Chicago doesn’t care what is growing in your back 40, they tend to focus on the bigger picture. The bigger picture shows that this year’s crop may not be a record-breaker, but things aren’t really terrible across the board. Yesterday, the funds sold 6000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 8000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 30,945 contracts of corn, net long 71,785 contracts of soybeans, and net short 99,110 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at the double-low from yesterday and overnight, 4.8025, followed by the double-low from July 12th and 13th that is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. Initial resistance is at the overnight high, 4.9350, followed by the psychological 5.00 mark, and then 5.1225, Wednesday’s high. November soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.2250, followed by the one-month low charted Wednesday, 13.15, and then the psychological 13.00 level. Initial resistance is at 13.4575, the overnight high, followed by 13.54, Wednesday’s high, and then Sunday night’s chart gap, 13.7550-13.79. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.