MarketEdge AM Comments

Aug 28, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight.  September corn finished the overnight session up 4 cents, settling at 4.7475.  November soybeans were up 11 ¾ cents, settling at 13.9950.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is up 30 points, trading at 104.106.  October crude oil is up 11 cents, trading at $79.94 per barrel.  Precious metals are mixed.  Industrial metals are lower, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 147 points, trading at 34,524.  Soybean futures gapped higher overnight, dominating the lion’s share of trading volume and were clearly the upside leader.  Corn futures timidly followed along.  Extended weather forecast models now call for hot and dry weather to continue through the middle of September for the heart of the Corn Belt.  This forecast obviously cannot help to add bushels to the US soybean crop.  To add insult to injury, the ProFarmer Crop Tour projected a soybean carryout estimate well below USDA’s current figure, which was already extremely tight.  If ProFarmer’s estimate is correct, which it very well could be given the current weather forecast, the job of the futures market is to ration demand and that’s exactly what the futures market was trying to accomplish overnight by gapping higher to new one-month highs.  On Friday, the funds sold 1000 contracts of corn, bought 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 118,610 contracts of corn, net long 78,285 contracts of soybeans, and net short 82,010 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the double-high from Friday and overnight, 4.77, followed by last week’s high charted on Monday, 4.93, and then the four-week high charted on the 11th, 4.9475.  Initial support lies at 4.69 and 4.6850, the lows from Friday and Thursday, respectively, followed by the two-year-plus contract low charted on Tuesday, 4.61.  November soybeans face initial resistance at the psychological 14.00 level, followed by the new one-month high charted overnight, 14.0950, and then 14.35, the double-high charted on July 24th and May 31, 2022, which is also the 15-month contract high.  Initial support lies at the chart gap created overnight, 13.9050-13.96, followed by 13.50, and then last week’s low charted on Wednesday, 13.3250.  Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Monday.

Read More News

Aug 25, 2023
September corn closed down 1 ½ at 4.7075 and December corn closed down a quarter of a cent at 4.88.
Aug 25, 2023
​Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. 
Aug 24, 2023
Good Morning.  Corn futures were lower and soybean futures were higher overnight.