MarketEdge AM Comments

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were mixed overnight.  September corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.6925.  November soybeans were off 5 cents, settling at 13.41.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 370 points, trading at 103.932.  October crude oil is off $1.22, trading at $78.42 per barrel.  Precious metals are all higher.  Industrial metals are all higher.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 7 points, trading at 34,351.  Feedgrains found some support overnight, reacting to reports of more Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian export facilities along the Danube River.  Aside from that, the path of least resistance this time of the year is lower as we approach harvest season.  Traders seem to be content that there is plenty of crop out there despite some pretty obvious weather/crop production concerns across the Corn Belt.  Scorching heat and dry weather continues across the Corn Belt throughout the end of the week.  There is relief from the heat in the extended forecast, however, the Corn Belt is expected to stay mostly dry to round out the month of August.  The ProFarmer Crop Tour will enter its third day today.  Crop scouts will be active in Western Illinois and Southeast Iowa on the east side of the tour and in Western Iowa on the west side of the tour today.  Tomorrow, the tour will move into Central and Northeastern Iowa and Southern Minnesota before wrapping up with final national yield projections that will be released on Friday.  Yesterday’s tour findings reported rather disappointing corn yields in Nebraska and Indiana when compared to USDA’s current projections.  Nebraska ended up 17bpa below USDA and Indiana was 14bpa below USDA.  It appears as if traders are shrugging off these large deviations from government estimates as the market reacted minimally to this information overnight.  The ProFarmer Crop Tour has a reputation of consistently reporting yield estimates that end up below final official yield figures, so perhaps traders are keeping this in mind and ignoring the tour due to the assumption that the figures derived from it are unreliable.  Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, sold 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 4000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 83,625 contracts of corn, net long 60,190 contracts of soybeans, and net short 71,435 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.6550, followed by the new two-year-plus contract low charted yesterday, 4.61.  Initial resistance is at Monday’s high, 4.93, followed by the three-week high charted on August 11^th, 4.9475, and then the psychological 5.00 mark.  November soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.3250, followed by the double-low charted last Tuesday and Wednesday, 13.03, and then the psychological 13.00 level.  Initial resistance is at 13.50. followed by the high for the month charted on Monday, 13.81, and then 14.00.  Opening calls are mixed.
 
Have a great Wednesday.