MarketEdge AM Comments
Aug 21, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8225. November soybeans were up 22 ½ cents, settling at 13.7575. In the outside markets, as of 8:00am: The US Dollar Index is off 130 points, trading at 103.245. September crude oil is up $1.05, trading at $82.30 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 69 points, trading at 34,634. Scorching heat and dry weather for the heart of the Corn Belt forecasted for this week supported soybean futures overnight. Corn is essentially tagging along, posting modest gains as soybeans rally. Hot and dry weather this late in the growing season will likely have a very minimal impact on corn production potential. This is very much so a soybean story as heat and dryness is certainly not welcome for soybean crop development during the key August timeframe when soybeans are working on filling pods. This afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report is expected to show minimal changes in crop conditions ratings. Next week will probably be another story after this week’s weather forecast. Once we get through this week, though, the extended forecast for the Corn Belt calls for cooling temperatures and increased precipitation in the Western Corn Belt in the 6-10 day timeframe. The ProFarmer Crop Tour kicks off today. Crop scouts will begin in Ohio and South Dakota today, and will move on to Indiana and Nebraska tomorrow, Illinois and Iowa on Wednesday, and finish off with Minnesota and Iowa on Thursday. Final yield estimates will be reported on Friday. Whether or not you put much stock in the ProFarmer Crop Tour, traders certainly pay attention. Along with the weather forecast, findings from the Crop Tour will help to shape the trajectory of futures this week. On Friday, the funds bought 5000 contracts of corn, bought 6000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 75,625 contracts of corn, net long 63,190 contracts of soybeans, and net short 71,435 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.93, followed closely by the August 11th high, 4.9475, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.8050, the overnight low, followed by the double-low charted Tuesday and Wednesday that is also a two-year contract low, 4.62. November soybeans gapped higher overnight and filled in the chart gap from July 31st. Initial resistance is now at the overnight high, 13.81, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then 14.35, the 15-month high and double-high charted on July 24th and May 31, 2022. Initial support lies at the chart gap created overnight, 13.5550-13.6225, followed by 13.50, and then the double-low charted on Tuesday and Wednesday, 13.03. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Monday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8225. November soybeans were up 22 ½ cents, settling at 13.7575. In the outside markets, as of 8:00am: The US Dollar Index is off 130 points, trading at 103.245. September crude oil is up $1.05, trading at $82.30 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 69 points, trading at 34,634. Scorching heat and dry weather for the heart of the Corn Belt forecasted for this week supported soybean futures overnight. Corn is essentially tagging along, posting modest gains as soybeans rally. Hot and dry weather this late in the growing season will likely have a very minimal impact on corn production potential. This is very much so a soybean story as heat and dryness is certainly not welcome for soybean crop development during the key August timeframe when soybeans are working on filling pods. This afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report is expected to show minimal changes in crop conditions ratings. Next week will probably be another story after this week’s weather forecast. Once we get through this week, though, the extended forecast for the Corn Belt calls for cooling temperatures and increased precipitation in the Western Corn Belt in the 6-10 day timeframe. The ProFarmer Crop Tour kicks off today. Crop scouts will begin in Ohio and South Dakota today, and will move on to Indiana and Nebraska tomorrow, Illinois and Iowa on Wednesday, and finish off with Minnesota and Iowa on Thursday. Final yield estimates will be reported on Friday. Whether or not you put much stock in the ProFarmer Crop Tour, traders certainly pay attention. Along with the weather forecast, findings from the Crop Tour will help to shape the trajectory of futures this week. On Friday, the funds bought 5000 contracts of corn, bought 6000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 75,625 contracts of corn, net long 63,190 contracts of soybeans, and net short 71,435 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.93, followed closely by the August 11th high, 4.9475, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.8050, the overnight low, followed by the double-low charted Tuesday and Wednesday that is also a two-year contract low, 4.62. November soybeans gapped higher overnight and filled in the chart gap from July 31st. Initial resistance is now at the overnight high, 13.81, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then 14.35, the 15-month high and double-high charted on July 24th and May 31, 2022. Initial support lies at the chart gap created overnight, 13.5550-13.6225, followed by 13.50, and then the double-low charted on Tuesday and Wednesday, 13.03. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Monday.