MarketEdge AM Comments
Aug 18, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 6 cents, settling at 4.79. November soybeans were up 15 ¾ cents, settling at 13.4575. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 60 points, trading at 103.629. September crude oil is off 39 cents, trading at $80.00 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except palladium. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 180 points, trading at 34,356. Concerns regarding the upcoming weather forecast for the Corn Belt and an escalation in the Ukraine/Russia conflict overnight were supportive to futures. Scorching heat and dry weather are currently forecasted for the heart of the Corn Belt in the coming days. This kind of weather in the second half of August will, no doubt, impact soybean yield potential and will further stress the corn crop. With a projected soybean balance sheet that is already incredibly tight, this year’s soybean crop simply cannot afford any hiccups when it comes to yield/production. This story is very supportive to soybean futures. Meanwhile, while the weather heats up in the US, the situation between Ukraine and Russia shows no sign of cooling down anytime soon. In fact, the conflict has escalated in the last 24 hours. Reportedly, Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone a mere three miles from the Kremlin in Moscow in the morning hours. Debris fell on the city’s exposition center, damaging it. Photos and video released by Russian media showed thick smoke rising with the skyscrapers of Central Moscow in the background. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 46,050 contracts of corn, net long 68,980 contracts of soybeans, and net short 88,145 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.8025, followed by the high from last week charted on Friday, 4.9475, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.7250, the overnight low, followed by the double-low charted on Tuesday and Wednesday that is also a two-year contract low, 4.62. November soybeans face initial resistance at 13.4975, the overnight high, followed by the July 31st chart gap, 13.7550-13.79. Initial support lies at 13.3125, the overnight low, followed by the double-low charted on Tuesday and Wednesday, 13.03, and then the psychological 13.00 level. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 6 cents, settling at 4.79. November soybeans were up 15 ¾ cents, settling at 13.4575. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 60 points, trading at 103.629. September crude oil is off 39 cents, trading at $80.00 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except palladium. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 180 points, trading at 34,356. Concerns regarding the upcoming weather forecast for the Corn Belt and an escalation in the Ukraine/Russia conflict overnight were supportive to futures. Scorching heat and dry weather are currently forecasted for the heart of the Corn Belt in the coming days. This kind of weather in the second half of August will, no doubt, impact soybean yield potential and will further stress the corn crop. With a projected soybean balance sheet that is already incredibly tight, this year’s soybean crop simply cannot afford any hiccups when it comes to yield/production. This story is very supportive to soybean futures. Meanwhile, while the weather heats up in the US, the situation between Ukraine and Russia shows no sign of cooling down anytime soon. In fact, the conflict has escalated in the last 24 hours. Reportedly, Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone a mere three miles from the Kremlin in Moscow in the morning hours. Debris fell on the city’s exposition center, damaging it. Photos and video released by Russian media showed thick smoke rising with the skyscrapers of Central Moscow in the background. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 46,050 contracts of corn, net long 68,980 contracts of soybeans, and net short 88,145 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.8025, followed by the high from last week charted on Friday, 4.9475, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.7250, the overnight low, followed by the double-low charted on Tuesday and Wednesday that is also a two-year contract low, 4.62. November soybeans face initial resistance at 13.4975, the overnight high, followed by the July 31st chart gap, 13.7550-13.79. Initial support lies at 13.3125, the overnight low, followed by the double-low charted on Tuesday and Wednesday, 13.03, and then the psychological 13.00 level. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.