MarketEdge AM Comments
Aug 03, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn futures were lower and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8550. November soybeans were up 5 cents, settling at 13.2625. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 120 points, trading at 102.708. September crude oil is up 28 cents, trading at $79.77 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 92 points, trading at 35,311. Soybean futures attempted a weak recovery overnight, however, the current forecast for the US Midwest continues to weigh heavily on grains and oilseeds. In the last 24-hours, Nebraska, Southwest Iowa, Missouri, and Southern Illinois received a nice shot of precipitation. The next wave of meaningful rainfall is expected to dump on the dry Northern and Northwestern Corn Belt over the weekend. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Aside from new crop soybean sales, weekly sales bookings failed to impress. Last week, 107,500MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is below the lowest trade estimate and is 66% lower than both the previous week’ sales and the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 348,900MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 626,200MT. This figure is 52% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 26% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Canada, Nicaragua, and Honduras. Last week, 90,600MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is 54% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 16% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 2,630,700MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is above the highest trade expectation. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 344,900MT. This figure is 9% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 30% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Spain, the Netherlands, and Egypt. StoneX kicked off the private yield estimate season yesterday afternoon with the results of their crop survey. StoneX projected a national average corn yield of 177bpa with total production of 15.274 billion bushels. USDA currently forecasts a national average corn yield of 177.5bpa with total production of 15.32 billion bushels. StoneX projected a national average soybean yield of 50.5bpa with total production of 4.173 billion bushels. USDA currently forecasts a national average soybean yield of 52bpa with total production of 4.3 billion bushels. Yesterday, the funds sold 6000 contracts of corn, sold 12,000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 8000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 24,945 contracts of corn, net long 69,785 contracts of soybeans, and net short 91,110 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at 4.8375, the overnight low, followed by the double-low from July 12th and 13th which is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. Initial resistance is at the psychological 5.00 mark, followed by yesterday’s high, 5.1225, and then the chart gap from Sunday night, 5.1625-5.1675. November soybeans find initial support at the one-month low charted yesterday, 13.15, followed by the psychological 13.00 level. Initial resistance is at 13.54, yesterday’s high, followed by the chart gap from Sunday night, 13.7550-13.79. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn futures were lower and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8550. November soybeans were up 5 cents, settling at 13.2625. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 120 points, trading at 102.708. September crude oil is up 28 cents, trading at $79.77 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 92 points, trading at 35,311. Soybean futures attempted a weak recovery overnight, however, the current forecast for the US Midwest continues to weigh heavily on grains and oilseeds. In the last 24-hours, Nebraska, Southwest Iowa, Missouri, and Southern Illinois received a nice shot of precipitation. The next wave of meaningful rainfall is expected to dump on the dry Northern and Northwestern Corn Belt over the weekend. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Aside from new crop soybean sales, weekly sales bookings failed to impress. Last week, 107,500MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is below the lowest trade estimate and is 66% lower than both the previous week’ sales and the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 348,900MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 626,200MT. This figure is 52% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 26% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Canada, Nicaragua, and Honduras. Last week, 90,600MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is 54% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 16% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 2,630,700MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is above the highest trade expectation. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 344,900MT. This figure is 9% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 30% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Spain, the Netherlands, and Egypt. StoneX kicked off the private yield estimate season yesterday afternoon with the results of their crop survey. StoneX projected a national average corn yield of 177bpa with total production of 15.274 billion bushels. USDA currently forecasts a national average corn yield of 177.5bpa with total production of 15.32 billion bushels. StoneX projected a national average soybean yield of 50.5bpa with total production of 4.173 billion bushels. USDA currently forecasts a national average soybean yield of 52bpa with total production of 4.3 billion bushels. Yesterday, the funds sold 6000 contracts of corn, sold 12,000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 8000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 24,945 contracts of corn, net long 69,785 contracts of soybeans, and net short 91,110 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at 4.8375, the overnight low, followed by the double-low from July 12th and 13th which is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. Initial resistance is at the psychological 5.00 mark, followed by yesterday’s high, 5.1225, and then the chart gap from Sunday night, 5.1625-5.1675. November soybeans find initial support at the one-month low charted yesterday, 13.15, followed by the psychological 13.00 level. Initial resistance is at 13.54, yesterday’s high, followed by the chart gap from Sunday night, 13.7550-13.79. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Thursday.