MarketEdge PM Comments

(Taylor Bensenberg)

Good afternoon,
July corn closed down 10 ¾ at 6.1525 and December corn closed down 9 ½ at 5.48. July soybeans closed down 19 ½ at 14.49 and November soybeans closed down 15 ¼. 

• Markets are currently drilled in on the record-breaking yields in Brazil and U.S. planting progress
• Right now, corn exports are running 750 million bushels behind this time last year and this week’s corn sales bookings were the lowest we have seen in 25 years
• Lots of talk about European countries banning Ukraine grain imports, as of now both Poland and Romania will not be following suit
• Inverted markets (the nearby month is higher than the next…the market wants your grain now, not later)
  • Let’s look at the May/July corn spread which is currently around 48 cents
  • For May, the first notice day is April 28^th, so most elevators and processors will be changing bids to reflect July 2023 before this date
  • In 2021 on first notice day the May/July spread was inverted by 54 cents, over the next two weeks we saw July futures rally 90 cents
  • In 2022 on first notice day the May/July spread was inverted by 2.5 cents, over the next two weeks we saw July futures lose 50 cents
  • With that being said, make sure you have a plan in place to help protect your bottom line
• The summer high for corn normally takes place in Mid-May to early July 

Have a great weekend!