MarketEdge PM Comments

(Mike Moellenbeck)

Corn traded on both sides of yesterday's close with the overnight rally fading as the day session moved but corn ultimately found support into the close. May corn was up a penny at $6.77 ½ and December up 4 ¼ cents at $5.71.  May beans were up as much as 14 cents but settled up 2 cents.

• There continues to be concern around the Black Sea which was supportive to the overnight trade. Russia is saying they have resumed inspections of Ukrainian ships, but Ukraine denies the claim.
• China reports it imported 2.2 million metric tons of corn in the month of March, which is down 200,000 metric tons from last year. The current year to date exports to China are 7.52 mmt vs 5.16 mmt the prior season. China has really pushed up its sourcing from Brazil since it signed the trade deal.
• US corn plantings advanced to 8% this week versus the average progress for this week at 5%. It was the core Midwest and Southern Plains states that ran the US ahead of its averages. Upper Plains progress was near zero.
• The US bean crop is 4% planted as of Sunday with all the progress in the Mississippi River corridor. Average planting progress as of this week is 1%.
• The USDA attaché to Argentina lowered their production forecast to 23.9 mmt (USDA is at 27 mmt). They also projected a record 11 mmt imports (USDA 8.3 mmt).
• Brazil’s soybean producers continue to move their harvest to market. This has led to another sharp break in basis of another 20 cents.  This keeps Brazil soybeans more attractive to the world market over the US, which is really ok given the tight US supply. Brazil will ship 15.2 mmt soybeans in April, up 1.4 mmt from its previous estimate.