MarketEdge PM Comments
Apr 05, 2023
Some positive export news this morning supported corn and bean prices but by the close any gains early session gains were lost. Corn finished the day 1 cent lower in the old crop months and 1 cent higher in the new crop months. At one time nearby corn was up 6 cents and new crop was up 4. On the bean side, overall beans were 4-6 cents lower but were up 10 cents in the nearby month at one time and 3-4 cents higher in the new crop months.
- Ethanol production last week ran at a rate of 1003k barrels per day, unchanged from the week prior. This rate implies the USDA is overstating its estimate of corn usage for ethanol production. Ethanol production margins are well in the black and should lend to continued usage; however, it is also the time for plant shutdowns for scheduled maintenance to possibly slow production.
- The USDA announced a small corn export sale of 125,000 metric tons to an unknown destination. This helped support prices briefly when the day session opened but overall was seen as a inconsequential.
- The weekly export sales report to be released tomorrow is expected to show new corn sales of 800,000 metric tons to 1.5 million metric tons. This would be in excess of last year if realized and would incrementally chip away at the deficit developed to last year and to the USDA’s annual export projection.
- The trade expects the US to have sold 200-600,000 metric tons of soybeans in tomorrow's export sales report. This compares to 800,000 metric tons last year.
- The Argentina government announced it will be offering a third round of a beneficial exchange rate to farmers to entice selling of soybeans. This may have pressured bean prices in today's trade. The idea is to generate export taxes for the Argentine government versus farmers holding on to the soybeans.
- More snow in the Dakotas and Minnesota over the last 48 hours. Warmer temperatures are projected in the 5-10 day forecast window. All this ultimately results in flooding on Mississippi River with the New Boston lock predicted to close around April 22nd.
- The focus the next few months will be planting progress, or lack thereof. The 92 million acres anticipated corn plantings is on the high side, some feel, and we may see those acres back off a bit; regardless, the numbers are what they are, and now we debate it.
- Farmer selling has slowed down, and with planting coming up, we could see the basis improve to get movement to processors.
- We have a short week, followed by a three-day weekend, as markets are closed April 7 for Good Friday.
- The Dow and the Dollar are both higher today, and crude was down a bit.