MarketEdge AM Comments

Apr 25, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  May corn finished the overnight session off a half of a penny, settling at 6.5075.  May soybeans were off 4 ¼ cents, settling at 14.61.  In the outside markets, as of 7:55am:  The US Dollar Index is up 182 points, trading at 101.530.  June crude oil is off 72 cents, trading at $78.04 per barrel.  Precious metals are all lower.  Industrial metals are lower, except tin.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 77 points, trading at 33,924.  A weather forecast for the majority of the Corn Belt that will support rapid planting activity, planting progress that was reported ahead of the five-year average paces, positively ugly export demand, and outside market pressure weighed on corn and soybean futures overnight.  Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress Report showed national corn planting progress at 14% complete as of Sunday night.  This figure is a six point advancement from last week, is seven points ahead of last year at this time, and is three points ahead of the five-year average.  National soybean planting progress was reported to be 9% complete as of Sunday night.  This figure is a five point advancement from last week, is six points ahead of last year at this time, and is five points ahead of the five-year average.  The forecast for the Corn Belt for the next ten days calls for cooler than normal temperatures but mostly dry weather, save for a few chances of scattered precipitation.  This forecast should facilitate rapid planting progress in the week ahead.  Following on the heels of one of the ugliest weekly Export Sales Reports in recent history on Thursday, yesterday’s weekly Export Inspections Report did not help to inspire any confidence in the struggling US export program.  Weekly corn export shipments continue to run at a pace well below normal for this time of the year and cumulative corn export shipments are falling farther and farther behind the pace needed to meet USDA’s export forecast.  Soybean export shipments are also struggling to meet USDA’s current export forecast.  This is not entirely surprising, though, considering that South American offers are at an extreme discount to US offers.  To add insult to injury, there was a flash sales cancellation of corn bound for China for the current marketing year reported yesterday.  Yesterday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, sold 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 5000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net long 39,700 contracts of corn, net long 18,630 contracts of soybeans, and net short 126,290 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, May corn finds initial support at the psychological 6.50 level, followed very closely by yesterday’s low, 6.4850, and then the low for the month charted on the 10th, 6.4025.  Initial resistance is at 6.53, the overnight high, followed by yesterday’s high, 6.6750, and then the two-month high charted one week ago, 6.8250.  May soybeans find initial support at 14.59, the overnight low, followed by 14.50, and then the six-month low charted on March 24th, 14.05.  Initial resistance is at 14.7125, the overnight high, followed by the psychological 15.00 mark, which was also the double-high from yesterday and Friday, and then 15.3150, the 1 ½ month high charted one week ago.  Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.

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