MarketEdge AM Comments
Apr 21, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. May corn finished the overnight session off 2 cents, settling at 6.6175. May soybeans were off 7 ¾ cents, settling at 14.8975. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 123 points, trading at 101.717. June crude oil is up 36 cents, trading at $77.73 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 23 points, trading at 33,932. Soybean futures were the downside leader overnight, pressured by dismal export sales, weak Chinese demand, and a Brazilian crop that just keeps getting bigger. Brazil’s large soybean crop is being offered to the world market at an extreme discount to US soybeans. There is now confirmation that discounted Brazilian soybeans are working their way into the US Southeast. Shipping records show two cargoes currently waiting to be loaded in Brazil with a destination of the US Southeast. Corn and soybean futures are still grappling with the fallout from yesterday’s ugly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn sales bookings reported yesterday were the lowest for this week of the year in 25 years! The current pace of corn exports is running 750 million bushels behind last year at this time. Cumulative corn export sales are running way behind the pace needed to meet USDA’s current export forecast, which is already well below last year’s corn exports. Cumulative soybean export sales, which had been on target to either meet or exceed USDA’s forecast for the current marketing year, are now running behind the pace needed to meet the target. In order to reach USDA’s projection for soybean export sales, weekly sales bookings need to average 10 million bushels per week through August. The weekly sales bookings reported yesterday totaled only 3.7 million bushels. Yesterday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, sold 3000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 39,885 contracts of corn, net long 126,670 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,365 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, May corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 6.6050, followed by 6.50, and then last week’s low charted on Monday, 6.4025. Initial resistance is at 6.6550, the overnight high, followed by 6.8250, the two-month high charted on Tuesday and the double-high from Tuesday and February 21st, and then a cluster of resistance from that level on up to 6.86, the 5 ½ month high charted on January 18th. May soybeans find initial support at the double-low from overnight and yesterday, 14.8825, followed by last week’s low charted on Monday, 14.8250, and then the 14.60’s. Initial resistance is at 14.9950, the overnight high, followed immediately by the psychological 15.00 mark, and then the 1 ½ month high charted on Tuesday, 15.3150. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. May corn finished the overnight session off 2 cents, settling at 6.6175. May soybeans were off 7 ¾ cents, settling at 14.8975. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 123 points, trading at 101.717. June crude oil is up 36 cents, trading at $77.73 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 23 points, trading at 33,932. Soybean futures were the downside leader overnight, pressured by dismal export sales, weak Chinese demand, and a Brazilian crop that just keeps getting bigger. Brazil’s large soybean crop is being offered to the world market at an extreme discount to US soybeans. There is now confirmation that discounted Brazilian soybeans are working their way into the US Southeast. Shipping records show two cargoes currently waiting to be loaded in Brazil with a destination of the US Southeast. Corn and soybean futures are still grappling with the fallout from yesterday’s ugly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn sales bookings reported yesterday were the lowest for this week of the year in 25 years! The current pace of corn exports is running 750 million bushels behind last year at this time. Cumulative corn export sales are running way behind the pace needed to meet USDA’s current export forecast, which is already well below last year’s corn exports. Cumulative soybean export sales, which had been on target to either meet or exceed USDA’s forecast for the current marketing year, are now running behind the pace needed to meet the target. In order to reach USDA’s projection for soybean export sales, weekly sales bookings need to average 10 million bushels per week through August. The weekly sales bookings reported yesterday totaled only 3.7 million bushels. Yesterday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, sold 3000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 39,885 contracts of corn, net long 126,670 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,365 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, May corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 6.6050, followed by 6.50, and then last week’s low charted on Monday, 6.4025. Initial resistance is at 6.6550, the overnight high, followed by 6.8250, the two-month high charted on Tuesday and the double-high from Tuesday and February 21st, and then a cluster of resistance from that level on up to 6.86, the 5 ½ month high charted on January 18th. May soybeans find initial support at the double-low from overnight and yesterday, 14.8825, followed by last week’s low charted on Monday, 14.8250, and then the 14.60’s. Initial resistance is at 14.9950, the overnight high, followed immediately by the psychological 15.00 mark, and then the 1 ½ month high charted on Tuesday, 15.3150. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.