MarketEdge AM Comments
Apr 20, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. May corn finished the overnight session off 6 ¾ cents, settling at 6.6550. May soybeans were off 11 ¾ cents, settling at 14.9475. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 124 points, trading at 102.092. May crude oil is off $1.20, trading at $77.96 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except silver. Industrial metals are lower, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 178 points, trading at 33,855. Commodities, in general, are lower this morning, pressured by sharply lower crude oil futures and a firmer US Dollar. The current US Midwest weather forecast is also weighing on futures this morning. After the rain event forecasted for the Corn Belt today, there are only limited chances of rainfall for the heart of the Corn Belt through the rest of the month, which should allow farmers to get back to fieldwork next week. Other fresh fundamental news is rather limited this morning, aside from the weekly Export Sales Report that was released at 7:30am. This morning’s report was not friendly for corn or soybean futures. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings for the current marketing year failed to meet even the lowest of trade guesses. Last week, 312,400MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is over 250,000MT lower than the lowest trade estimate, is 41% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 79% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 422,000MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,298,500MT. This figure is 42% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 27% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Colombia, Peru, and China. Last week, 100,100MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is 150,000MT lower than the lowest trade estimate, is 73% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 58% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, a measly 2900MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 582,800MT. This figure is 15% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 20% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, the Netherlands, Mexico, Canada, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 10,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 44,885 contracts of corn, net long 129,700 contracts of soybeans, and net short 103,365 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, May corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 6.6525, followed by 6.50, and then 6.4025, last Monday’s low. Initial resistance is at 6.74, the overnight high, followed by two-month high charted on Tuesday, 6.8250, and then a cluster of resistance from that level on up to the 5 ½ month high charted on January 18th, 6.86. May soybeans took out initial support, at the psychological 15.00 mark, overnight. The next support level to test is the overnight low, 14.9350, followed by last Monday’s low, 14.8250. Initial resistance is now at the psychological 15.00 level, followed by 15.3150, the 1 ½ month high charted on Tuesday, and then the two-month high charted on March 6th, 15.3850. Opening calls are lower. Following are 24-hour rainfall totals (so far) reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes:
Ryan, Delaware Co., IA 0.75”
Martelle, Jones Co., IA 0.60”
Tipton, Cedar Co., IA 0.30”
Calamus, Clinton Co., IA 0.25”
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. May corn finished the overnight session off 6 ¾ cents, settling at 6.6550. May soybeans were off 11 ¾ cents, settling at 14.9475. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 124 points, trading at 102.092. May crude oil is off $1.20, trading at $77.96 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except silver. Industrial metals are lower, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 178 points, trading at 33,855. Commodities, in general, are lower this morning, pressured by sharply lower crude oil futures and a firmer US Dollar. The current US Midwest weather forecast is also weighing on futures this morning. After the rain event forecasted for the Corn Belt today, there are only limited chances of rainfall for the heart of the Corn Belt through the rest of the month, which should allow farmers to get back to fieldwork next week. Other fresh fundamental news is rather limited this morning, aside from the weekly Export Sales Report that was released at 7:30am. This morning’s report was not friendly for corn or soybean futures. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings for the current marketing year failed to meet even the lowest of trade guesses. Last week, 312,400MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is over 250,000MT lower than the lowest trade estimate, is 41% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 79% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 422,000MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,298,500MT. This figure is 42% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 27% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Colombia, Peru, and China. Last week, 100,100MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is 150,000MT lower than the lowest trade estimate, is 73% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 58% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, a measly 2900MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 582,800MT. This figure is 15% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 20% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, the Netherlands, Mexico, Canada, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 10,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 44,885 contracts of corn, net long 129,700 contracts of soybeans, and net short 103,365 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, May corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 6.6525, followed by 6.50, and then 6.4025, last Monday’s low. Initial resistance is at 6.74, the overnight high, followed by two-month high charted on Tuesday, 6.8250, and then a cluster of resistance from that level on up to the 5 ½ month high charted on January 18th, 6.86. May soybeans took out initial support, at the psychological 15.00 mark, overnight. The next support level to test is the overnight low, 14.9350, followed by last Monday’s low, 14.8250. Initial resistance is now at the psychological 15.00 level, followed by 15.3150, the 1 ½ month high charted on Tuesday, and then the two-month high charted on March 6th, 15.3850. Opening calls are lower. Following are 24-hour rainfall totals (so far) reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes:
Ryan, Delaware Co., IA 0.75”
Martelle, Jones Co., IA 0.60”
Tipton, Cedar Co., IA 0.30”
Calamus, Clinton Co., IA 0.25”
Have a great Thursday.