MarketEdge AM Comments

Apr 06, 2023


(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  May corn finished the overnight session off 4 cents, settling at 6.4875.  May soybeans were off 12 ¼ cents, settling at 14.9875.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 66 points, trading at 101.918.  May crude oil is up 8 cents, trading at $80.69 per barrel.  Precious metals are higher, except silver.  Industrial metals are lower, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 12 points, trading at 33,644.  Corn and soybean futures continued the trend set on Tuesday overnight, trading lower and taking profits in light of a friendly extended forecast for the heart of the Corn Belt.  With the current forecast, a lot of fieldwork will be accomplished in the most important growing region of the US in the next two weeks.  From historical data, we know that earlier planting typically results in higher yields.  We also know that early planting leads to more total acres planted.  Of course, traders are closely watching the situation in the Dakotas that are still blanketed with snow, however, planting progress in the Dakotas usually doesn’t ramp up until the end of April and early May in a “normal” year, so there is still plenty of time for them.  This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report.  Weekly corn sales bookings were within the range of trade expectations and weekly soybean sales bookings failed to meet the lowest trade estimate.  Last week, 1,246,600MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is 20% higher than the previous week’s sales, is 26% lower than the prior four-week average, and is in the middle of the range of trade estimates.  For the 2023/24 marketing year, 26,200MT of corn was booked for sale to Japan last week.  Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,136,800MT.  This figure is 70% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 8% higher than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were Mexico, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Guatemala.  Last week, 155,300MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is 55% lower than the previous week’s sales, is 42% lower than the prior four-week average, and is nearly 50,000MT below the lowest trade estimate.  For the 2023/24 marketing year, Chinese sales cancellations outweighed new sales, resulting in a net sales figure of -48,300MT for the week.  Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 558,700MT.  This figure is 46% below the previous week’s sales and is 26% lower than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were China, Indonesia, Germany, Mexico, and Japan.  Yesterday, the funds sold 1000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 13,440 contracts of corn, net long 106,405 contracts of soybeans, and net short 96,660 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, May corn continues to hover around the key 6.50 level of support.  Below 6.50, further support lies at yesterday’s low, 6.4650, followed by the three-week low charted on March 22nd, 6.2325, and then the eight-month low charted on March 10th, 6.0675.  Initial resistance is at 6.60, yesterday’s high, followed by the one-month high charted Monday, 6.6850, and then a cluster of resistance from 6.8475 to 6.86, which includes several daily highs as well as the five-month high charted on January 18th.  May soybeans flirted with key support at the psychological 15.00 mark overnight.  Below 15.00, further support lies at the overnight low, 14.9675, followed by Friday’s low, 14.68, and then 14.50.  Initial resistance is at yesterday’s high and the one month high charted on Monday, 15.27 and 15.2775, respectively, followed by the March 6th high, 15.3850, and then the ten-month high charted on February 22nd, 15.4975.  Opening calls are lower.
 
Have a great Thursday.
 

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Apr 27, 2023
Grain prices were in the red again today.
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Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.
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