MarketEdge AM Comments

Apr 04, 2023

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  May corn finished the overnight session off 8 ¼ cents, settling at 6.4950.  May soybeans were off 7 ¾ cents, settling at 15.1425.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is off 52 points, trading at 102.041.  May crude oil is up 59 cents, trading at $81.01 per barrel.  Precious metals are all higher.  Industrial metals are lower, except tin.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 51 points, trading at 33,837.  When it comes to the weather narrative this time of the year, it is always baffling what a difference a day makes.  Just 24 hours ago, a wet weather forecast for the heart of the Corn Belt through the middle of April was given as one reason for rallying corn and soybean futures.  This morning, weaker corn and soybean futures overnight are being attributed mostly to a warmer and drier weather pattern for the Corn Belt in the middle of April.  Go figure!  It is April and this kind of whipsawing market action in reaction to changing weather forecasts is common.  Yesterday afternoon, USDA released the first Crop Progress Report of the spring season.  National corn planting was reported to be 2% complete as of Sunday night.  This figure is in line with both the five-year average and last year at this time.  Wheat futures were higher overnight in response to declining crop conditions ratings.  The national winter wheat crop condition rating was lowered by six points yesterday afternoon, to 28% good to excellent.  This figure is two points below last year at this time and is 15 points below the five-year average.  Yesterday, the funds were net even on corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 2000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 7440 contracts of corn, net long 113,405 contracts of soybeans, and net short 93,660 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, May corn finds initial support at the key 6.50 mark and the overnight low, 6.4950, followed by the two-week low charted on March 22nd, 6.2325, and then 6.0675, the eight-month low charted on March 10th.  Initial resistance is at 6.5750, the overnight high, followed by the new one-month high charted yesterday, 6.6850, and then a cluster of resistance from 6.8475 to 6.86, which includes the highs from February 14th, January 31st, and the five-month high charted on January 18th.  May soybeans find initial support at 15.1250, the overnight low, followed by the psychological 15.00 mark, and then 14.68, Friday’s low.  Initial resistance is at the one-month high charted yesterday, 15.2775, followed by 15.3850, the March 6th high, and then the ten-month high charted on February 22nd, 15.4975.  Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.

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