Grain Notes 11/15/2019 PM Comments

Good afternoon. Mixed day in the markets with corn down and soybeans were up slightly. December corn closed down 4 1/2 to 3.7125 and March soybeans fell 4 to 3.8075. January soybeans closed up 1 1/2 to 9.1825. Soybeans drew support from a friendly North American Oilseed processing association and good weekly export sales along with slow farmer selling. Corn traded to the lowest level this week as export sales continue to come in on the low end with no help from poor export sales on wheat. US economic Advisor Larry Kudlow had encouraging words for the potential phase 1 trade deal, but traders have here that plenty and the trade deal was originally stated for Nov 17, but still does not have a new date. In outside markets the dollar index is down .17 to 97.99, oil is up 1.04 to 57.81, and the Dow was up 223 points. 

  • The USDA will issue the second MFP payment beginning the week before Thanksgiving, according to Sec. Perdue. If conditions dictate a third payment, it would be made in January.
  • NOPA October Crush hit an all-time record for any month with 175.4 million bushels, well above the average estimate of 166.8 million bushels and also above the highest estimate of 173 million. Soy oil stocks were 1.423 billion pounds vs. 1.42 billion estimated.
  • Today's export sales were 581 tmt for corn vs estimates of 400-800 tmt and that puts us 433 million behind last year. Brazil continues to have cheaper corn compared to the US priced into Asian. Soybean sales were solid at 1253 tmt vs estimates of 800-1400 tmt with China taking 750 tmt and we are now even with last year, but well behind all years before the trade war as non China destinations are down 7 mmt compared to last year.  Wheat export sales were light at 238 tmt vs estimates of 200-500 tmt with Russian wheat being much cheaper than US wheat currently. 
  • The afternoon commitment of traders report shows the funds were 120,536 contracts short on corn as of Tuesday and long 25,460 contracts of soybeans. After today's selling of 10,000 corn contracts their estimated is now 137,536 contracts short. In soybeans today they were thought to have bought 2,000 contracts taking their estimated long position to 27,460 contracts.
  • From a chart perspective December corn has support at 3.6825 with resistance at the 50-day moving average of 3.81 and then resistance is at 3.8325. January soybeans have support at the 100-day moving average at 9.1250 then 9.00 with resistance at the 50 day moving average at 9.2425. 

Have a great evening.