Grain Notes 7/18/2019 PM Comments

Good afternoon. Negative day for the markets with both corn and beans down. September corn was down 11.50 to 4.2450 and December corn was down 11.75 to 4.2975. August soybeans were down 1.25 to 8.8125 and November soybeans were down 1.50 to 8.99. Selling was based on the unexpected rainfall across Iowa yesterday and mid-day wetter forecast in the 11-15 day. The heat forecasted also decreases in the 6-10 day forecast. Lackluster export sales didn't help the corn market today either. In outside market the dollar index is down .52 to 96.70, oil is down 1.12 to 55.66, and the Dow is up 3 points. 
  • Old crop corn export sales disappoint this morning as they were 200 tmt vs estimates of 250-500 tmt  and last week of 505 tmt. New crop corn estimates were 133 tmt vs at the low end of estimates which were 100-300 tmt and well below last years 774 tmt during this week. Old crop soybean says were 198 tmt vs estimates of 0-400 tmt and new crop came in at 198 tmt vs estimates of 100-300 tmt. Wheat was also in line with estimates at 347 tmt  vs estimates of 200-400 tmt.
  • Argentina corn is a 80 cent discount to US Fob offers and Brazil is a 45 cent discount to the US. Ethanol plants in California can economically buy Argentine corn vs US rail corn now. Also US exports will very likely be reduced by 100 million for this year given the lack of export business the last 6 weeks.
  • Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says the US and China are having principal level phone calls in anticipation of a face to face meeting at a later date. China did purchase a of US sorghum today after reports of President Trump growing increasing frustrated that they have not made the large agriculture purchases they promised.
  • Funds were estimated sellers of 20,000 contracts of corn today to reduce their long position to 158,318 contracts. In soybeans they were estimated buyers of 2,000 contracts to take their short position to 46,750 contracts.
  • Corn charts broke short-term support and September now finds support at 4.1325 with resistance coming at Mondays high of 4.60. December still has support at the 4.20 gap and resistance is at 4.6475. August soybeans have support at 8.71 and resistance at the psychological level of 9.00. November bean support lies at 8.9025 with resistance at 9.3650.

Have a great evening.