Grain Notes 9/16/2019 PM Comments 

Good afternoon. Positive start to the week as corn and beans were both up today. December corn rose 5 1/4 cents to 3.74 and March corn up 4 1/2 to 3.86. November soybeans were up 1 1/4 to finish at 9.00. Markets traded higher on strength in the crude oil market from Iran's attack on Saudi Arabian refineries. The market also drew support from additional soybean sales to China. Gains were capped by warm weather which continues to help the crop develop and hold off any frost scares. Ethanol lobbyists continue to fight for an increase in biofuel blends to offset the exemptions that were made to refineries last month. In outside markets the dollar index is up .32 to 98.58, oil is up 7.69 to 62.54, and the Dow is down 135 points. 
  • Crop ratings remain steady on corn at 55% good/excellent slightly above estimates which anticipated a 1% decrease to 54%. Iowa improved 2% to 65% and Illinois rebounded 3% to 41%.US corn harvest is 4% complete vs the historical average of 7%. Early corn yields appear to be slightly lower than expected from what I have heard. 18% of the corn is mature vs 39% on average and 68% is dented vs the average of 87%.
  • Soybeans crop conditions fell 1% last week to 54% right in line with estimates. Iowa increased 2% to 63% and Illinois fell 1% to 41%. 15% of soybeans are dropping leaves vs the 5 year average of 38%. 
  • The USDA announced the sale of 256k tonnes of beans to China for the 2019/20 marketing year.This comes in addition to the 204 tonnes sale announced last Friday.
  • Lot of rumors circulating about what will actually be proposed by the Administration to address the grievances of the biofuel industry. The latest proposal revolves around a 3 year running average of the reallocation of the small refinery exemptions to other nonexempt refineries over the next few years. This proposal has caused a rally in RINs values which ethanol plants sell which will help bring them profitability, but will not expand ethanol planting and corn usage. It seems to be a work around to the blend wall.. 
  • National Oilseed Processors Association reports a August crush of 168.1 above estimates of 162 million. This suggests that 2019-19 soybean crush should top a record 2.092 billion bushels for the year that ended Aug 31 above the USDA's current estimate of 2.085 billion. That would push the carryout under the psychological 1 billion bushel mark.
  • Funds were on the buying side for both corn and soybeans picking up an estimated 9000 corn contracts and 3000 soybean contracts. This would reduce their short position to 119,467 contracts on corn and 68,013 contracts on soybeans.
Have a great evening.