Grain Notes 6/3/2020 PM Comments

Good afternoon. Another day of green for the soybean market as corn was steady. July corn was down 1/4 to 3.3825 and December corn was up 1/4 to 3.3825. July soybeans were up 7 to 8.5750 and November soybeans were up 5 1/2 to 8.6625. Lackluster day for corn as it traded both sides as weekly ethanol production saw production improve again this week. The trade seems to have switch courses from a buy the rumor sell the fact market with soybeans as it is buying once the confirmation of export demand showed up is announced by the USDA this morning. In outside markets the dollar index is down .39 to 97.29, oil is down 8 cents to 36.73, and the Dow finished up 527 points. 
  • EIA ethanol statistics show another week of recovery in corn for ethanol production. The report shows production gained 41 tbpd to 765 this week. This is 42% off the lows but 36% below normal. Stocks continue to fall as gasoline demand continues to rise. Stocks are down 700 tb to 22476 this week and are on par with last year’s levels. Gasoline demand is up 36% from its year lows. Corn usage for ethanol during the week totaled 77.7 million bu.
  • The USDA confirmed 3 soybean cargoes were bought yesterday, at first they reported it as Chinese but later corrected it to an unknown destination. The trade continues to believe the cargoes will ultimately become China destined. The USDA confirmed 3 soybean cargoes were bought yesterday, at first they reported it as Chinese but later corrected it to an unknown destination. The trade continues to believe the cargoes will ultimately become China destined.
  • We are starting to see more discussion in the market over this year’s acreage forecasts. In the March planting intentions report the USDA published planted acreage of 97 million acres on corn and 85 million acres on soybeans. While these were immediately disputed, trade is now indicating they may be closer to the actual plantings than previously thought. Several analysts are now using corn acres of 94 to 95 million in their crop estimates, up from previous beliefs corn acres would only total 92 or 93 million. Soybean acres are seeing less dispute, with most analysts holding to the USDA figure.
  • Weather models continue to hold to their hot/dry forecast for the 7 day outlook before reverting to a cooler/wetter pattern for at least 2/3 of the Midwest. The SW corn belt could continue in a dry/hot pattern as the Southern Plains dry/hot weather system bleeds over into corn country.
Have a great evening.