Grain Notes 5/7/21 PM Comments

(Mike Moellenbeck)

New contract highs in both the corn and soybean market today as prices ran up late in the session.  For the week, July corn was up 59 cents closing at $7.32 ¼ with a new contract high of $7.35 ¼.  December corn rallied 72 ¾ cents for the week to close at $6.36 ½ per bushel with a new contract high of $6.38.  For the week July soybeans were higher for the sixth straight week gaining 55 /12 cents at $15.89 ¾.  The new contract high is $15.99 ½.  November soybeans were up 93 ¾ cents higher to settle at $14.33 ½ per bushel with a new contract high at $14.43 ¼ per bushel.
  • Brazil remains dry and the forecast continues to show no beneficial rain for at least 10 days.
  • US weather is quite different with forecasts showing beneficial rains in the 5, 10 and 15 day forecasts which show beneficial rain for many of the dry areas and dryer conditions for some of the wet areas. Expectations are the wet pattern is expected to shift north which would be beneficial as it would cut the moisture deficit areas in the western corn belt by 2/3rds.
  • USDA announced export sales this morning which showed 1.36 million metric tons (53.5 million bushels) of new crop corn to China and 188,500 metric tons of corn to unknown – 87,000 old crop (3.4 million bushels) and 101,500 new crop (4 million bushels).
  • Corn has rallied more than $2/bushel in the last 30 days and the funds are less net long futures by almost 50,000 contracts.  This implies the commercials have driven prices to the current levels.
  • Market rumors of China buying new crop US soybeans was supportive to the bean market
  • China imported 7.45 million metric tons of soybeans in April. This is .75 million metric tons more than it did the April last year.  Year to date imports are 54.4 million metric tons, up 6 million metric tons from last year. The current pace implies Chinese imports will be 103 million metric tons compared to USDA’s 100 million metric ton estimate in April.