Grain Notes 2/26/2021 PM Comments

(Mike Moellenbeck)

Prices ended the week lower with corn down 2-4 cents and beans down 1-9 cents.  Despite the weakness in the market the last few days, for the week May corn was up 5 ¾ and December corn was up 10 ¾ cents.  Beans had a strong week as well with nearby beans up 24 ¼ and new crop November futures finishing up 26 ¾.    
  • No new daily export sales announcements today, and.  We haven’t seen one since February 12th.
  • Brazil' bean harvest is still well behind normal at 26% harvested vs the normal pace of 43% complete.  The 6-10 day forecast for Brazil shows 2-4” of rain for most of the growing regions. Argentina stays dry during this same time period.
  • The Commitment of Traders report shows Managed Money positions were net sellers of corn by 4,600 contracts and net buyers of soybeans by 11,000 contracts
  • The February insurance prices ended up at $4.58 for new crop corn and $11.87 for soybeans.
  • Brazil’s corn crop planting progress making normal week-on-week gains but the pace is still 30% behind normal.  Corn harvest of the first crop is also advancing normally week-on-week but is 14% behind normal.
  • China’s meal market is taking a major hit off news stories of unreported ASF outbreaks.  Even a modest second wave of this disease could cut 6-7 mmt of soybean demand through the hog industry and the accompanying corn demand as well.

Have a good weekend.