If you’re going to take full advantage of high grain prices, it helps to have a partner who can help you navigate today’s volatile grain markets.
Count on River Valley Cooperative for basis contracts, minimum price contracts, hedge-to-arrive contracts, price-later contracts, priced-forward contracts, deferred payment contracts, direct deposit of grain checks, grain hauling services, and grain market insights.
River Valley provides two grain delivery options for marketing your grain, including:
2019 GRAIN POLICIES Iowa Grain Policies Illinois Grain Policies ACH Authorization Form
Select Pricing Program Bi-Weekly Updates John Stewart & Associates, July 24, 2020 Comments Weather has turned out to be largely cooperative the last 2 weeks after a feared hot/dry forecast caused about 3 days of excitement surrounding the June 30th acreage report. We do hear of some minor pockets of dryness in the east as well as west-central IA, but in talking with clients in those areas the concerns are relatively modest right now and an inch of rain would go a long way to establishing a trendline yield crop. In the areas that have gotten rain above trend crops are certainly in the cards given what we see today. At this point we would not be surprised to see state records for corn yields in MN, SD, IA, NE, and WI. In Illinois there is bit more of a mixed bag with some very good looking crops and some that are just average the further south you get. At this point our feeling is that the national average yield could be closer to the 180-182 range as long as no severe weather surprises develop in August. Starting on June 29th corn had a 3 day rally that ran 35 cents and within just 8 trading days gave back all but a nickel of the rally. It is our view that this was the full extent of the corn seasonal rally this year. The high for December corn during this mini-rally was 3.63 and it is our view this will remain the high through harvest. The Dec corn low currently stands at 3.22 set on 6/26/20. It is our view that this low may not hold as we get deeper into August. We continue to see too many bushels with the producer on Open Storage, DP, and Basis that need to be priced by the end of August in most cases. These pricings will likely pressure the market into new lows as has been the theme the past couple years. I hate to say it, but the bullishness in the corn and soybean market frankly weigh so heavily on one thing – China.. China has been on a buying spree of US agricultural products and it is our opinion that they really need these grains and meats due to low domestic supply. And, during the Sep-Dec period the US is the primary supplier for China to buy from. Unfortunately, outside of China’s recent buying there is little bullish in these markets. Coronavirus worries remain high and have demand outlooks leaning negative. Ethanol production for next year looks a little optimistic given demand at 85-90% of normal for the foreseeable future. And lastly, we feel it is likely that the USDA will increase production (yield) in the August WASDE report based on conditions in key growing states. There may be a bit more short term optimism in soybeans assuming China continues to buy large quantities seemingly every day. The high on Nov beans since this winter is 9.125 set on 7/6/2020. Technically, we have not closed above the SX 200 day moving average since Jan 23rd. If we could manage to do that soon we could see another run in soybeans towards the 9.25 area. JSA Select position summary: We went to 100% sold on corn for all new crop positions before the June 30th report. When you factor in all option trading leading up to that point in time we established a 1 year fall corn price of 3.48 and a 2 year fall corn price of 3.58. We have looked at re-ownership strategies during the growing season since then and simply feel that there is not enough upside in this timeframe to make any bold purchases. IF we see a major selloff soon that re-ownership trade may have more appeal, but we would need to see December corn make new lows to consider. When looking at our winter and summer deliver programs we are certainly looking at re-ownership strategies in August and September to capitalize on a potential post-harvest rally. In the 2 year fall 2021 program we entered into an option strategy that will collect premium into the fall with prices between $3.10 and $3.65. This strategy will also collect premium via a 310 Dec 20 put in the event of a sharp selloff. The idea behind this trade is that if we see Dec 2020 corn trade above 3.65 then Dec 2021 will be near $4.00 and we would simply exit the option strategy and sell futures. This strategy was done versus 100% of the 2 year 2021 corn volume. In soybeans we are 50% sold at 8.60 with the 1 year program and 8.63 in the 2 year fall position. We will be completing those positions very soon as we wait and see if Nov beans could manage a close above the 200 day moving average. But our patience is pretty thin with this trade. We want to give credit to Chinese business and strong basis, as well as inverted spreads. But the board seems to have little interest in moving much higher at the moment. KC wheat has had some recent volatility, but we have little interest at this point in establish an initial hedge below $5 July 2021 Brent Baker John Stewart & Associates CORN SUMMARY BEAN SUMMARY
Our program is designed to provide grain producers flexible pricing programs and delivery options based on the needs of your farming operation. Utilize futures and basis contracting to support pricing opportunities on grain marketing.
We offer transportation and logistics support for timely and cost effective delivery to market. In addition, utilize technology services aimed to improve the communication, execution and recordkeeping of your grain marketing supported by your Grain Marketing Team.
Communication • Receive emailed grain comments every morning and afternoon • Receive updates on government report data and market implications • Receive marketing bulletins and strategies
CLICK TO SUBSCRIBE
Technology • River Valley Cooperative mobile-friendly website – rivervalleycoop.com • Sign up for direct deposit of grain settlements • Receive contracts electronically and access to other customized reports • Sign up for text alerts via your mobile phone • Leave a price offer or sell grain electronically through the River Valley Cooperative/DTN Offer Portal and market grain 24 hours a day
NEW! Try our Equivalent Price Calculator Tool. Plug in your data into the shaded boxes on the downloadable spreadsheet to see the price equivalent on your crops.
Marketing • 24-hour marketing capabilities • First access to HTA contracting, basis programs and other marketing opportunities • Best market pricing • Delivery options including farm pick-up programs
For more information on any of our grain services, contact River Valley’s grain marketing team: Kurt Kramer - Mt Joy – Grain Originator kkramer@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1712 (Office) 608-732-1233 (Cell) Gretchen Nollman - Mt Joy – Grain Originator gnollman@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1738 (Office) 309-714-0688 (Cell) Bridgett Wildermuth - Mt Joy – Transportation & Grain Originator bwildermuth@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1719 (Office) 309-945-6680 Oliver Dion - Mt Joy – Grain Merchandiser odion@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1737 (Office) 563-299-1640 (Cell) Scott Sallee – Galva – Grain Originator ssallee@rivervalleycoop.com 309-932-2081 (Office) 309-853-7637 (Cell) Phil Knuth - Martelle – Grain Originator pknuth@rivervalleycoop.com 319-482-3101 (Office) 563-357-4835 (Cell) Allison Ryan – Ryan – Grain Originator aryan@rivervalleycoop.com 563-932-2101 (Office) 563-920-3405 (Cell) Kale Petersen - Mt Joy – Regional Sales Manager kpetersen@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1736 (Office) 563-357-5903 (Cell)