If you’re going to take full advantage of high grain prices, it helps to have a partner who can help you navigate today’s volatile grain markets.
Count on River Valley Cooperative for basis contracts, minimum price contracts, hedge-to-arrive contracts, price-later contracts, priced-forward contracts, deferred payment contracts, direct deposit of grain checks, grain hauling services, and grain market insights.
River Valley provides two grain delivery options for marketing your grain, including:
2019 GRAIN POLICIES Iowa Grain Policies Illinois Grain Policies ACH Authorization Form
Select Pricing Program Bi-Weekly Updates John Stewart & Associates, June 12, 2020 Comments In the time since our last update we have had a WASDE report and we have done some pricing. The WASDE yesterday was a non-event for corn as old crop ending stocks came in at 2.103 billion bushels vs expectations for 2.150 billion bushels as compared with 2.098 billion bushels in May. Soybeans were slightly more friendly than corn as ending stocks came in at 395 million bushels compared to expectations for 426 million bushels and 405 million bushels in May. US wheat continues to be burdensome coming in at 1.877 billion bushels vs expectations for 1.85 billion bushels and 1.866 billion bushels in May. Now that the WASDE is out of the way the market is shifting into a weather market. It would be most unusual to go through an entire summer with a big managed money short and just as unusual to have a summer without at least one weather concern of note. Todays COT report showed that managed money traders continued selling corn for the 10th consecutive week, shorting a net 15,666 contracts to bring the group to a net short of 301,873 contracts. For reference the record short for this group of traders is 344,185 contracts. There isn’t near the story in funds for soybeans and wheat like corn. Managed money was a net buyer for soybeans purchasing a net 11,998 contracts, bringing the net long position to 19,132 contracts. Managed money purchased 5,432 contracts of Kansas City Wheat as they are net long. On 6/1 we entered into an option strategy for corn with the goal of collecting premium with downside protection. Our opinion is that corn will continue to struggle to move materially higher, but also has little reason in June to fall like a rock. Our trade put on was to sell a July straddle which essentially collects premium with the erosion of time and a market that goes mostly sideways. The July options only have 14 days of time left so time decay will start to kick in more rapidly throughout June. In addition to selling a straddle we bought a slightly out of the money July put just in case this market does come off harder than we think on improving weather and Chinese tensions rising. If the market were to move materially higher to the point this strategy would not collect any premium December futures would be just above 3.50 which is where we need to be entering into futures hedges anyway in our view. The JSA Select trade we did was selling the 3.25 July straddle and buying the 3.15 July put collecting ~11.75 cents. The trade has been put on against all unsold corn bushels for this fall and 50% of the bushels for the winter program. The results of the strategy will be known on or before 6/26 when July options expire. On 6/2 Today we entered into a futures hedge for 50% of our fall 1 year and 2 year bean positions by selling futures at 8.60. It is very hard to see a major rally in the near term as we are still early into the soybean growing period, but new lows don’t seem likely either in the next 30-60 days. As they always say August weather is what makes the soybean crop. It is likely that if we move back to the lower end of the sideways range we will re-own this position. Additionally we have orders working for another 25% of the production at 8.89, and are looking to price another 25% around 9.15 which is just under the 200 Day Moving Average which it has not traded above since back in January. According to T-Storm our weather guy, coolness in the Corn Belt contrasts with mildness in the Plains over the next few days. Sharp warming unfolds from west to east early next week in response to an approaching system, but warmth does not last more than a few days as the system drags a cool front through the central U.S. over Wednesday-Friday (June 17-19). Scattered thunderstorms form along the front, but well-organized rainfall is not expected. More importantly, the cool front re-arranges the atmosphere such that additional cool fronts and systems can pass over June 20-26, which is why we are forecasting near-normal rainfall and temperatures over this period (0.50" to 1.50" most common), which should ease pockets of 14-day topsoil dryness and maintain 30-day subsoil moisture. As noted, 00Z European operational output was much drier than our forecast over the next 10 days, but it misplaced many key features, such that we expect future runs to correct and show better rainfall. Hopefully before our next update we can see some disagreement in weather models to allow the market to rally, and give us some pricing opportunities. Brent Baker John Stewart & Associates CORN UDATE 6/12/20 SOYBEAN UPDATE 6/12/20
Our program is designed to provide grain producers flexible pricing programs and delivery options based on the needs of your farming operation. Utilize futures and basis contracting to support pricing opportunities on grain marketing.
We offer transportation and logistics support for timely and cost effective delivery to market. In addition, utilize technology services aimed to improve the communication, execution and recordkeeping of your grain marketing supported by your Grain Marketing Team.
Communication • Receive emailed grain comments every morning and afternoon • Receive updates on government report data and market implications • Receive marketing bulletins and strategies
CLICK TO SUBSCRIBE
Technology • River Valley Cooperative mobile-friendly website – rivervalleycoop.com • Sign up for direct deposit of grain settlements • Receive contracts electronically and access to other customized reports • Sign up for text alerts via your mobile phone • Leave a price offer or sell grain electronically through the River Valley Cooperative/DTN Offer Portal and market grain 24 hours a day
NEW! Try our Equivalent Price Calculator Tool. Plug in your data into the shaded boxes on the downloadable spreadsheet to see the price equivalent on your crops.
Marketing • 24-hour marketing capabilities • First access to HTA contracting, basis programs and other marketing opportunities • Best market pricing • Delivery options including farm pick-up programs
For more information on any of our grain services, contact River Valley’s grain marketing team:
Oliver Dion - Mt Joy – Grain Merchandiser odion@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1737 (Office) 563-299-1640 (Cell) Kurt Kramer - Mt Joy – Grain Originator kkramer@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1712 (Office) 608-732-1233 (Cell) Gretchen Nollman - Mt Joy – Grain Originator gnollman@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1738 (Office) 309-714-0688 (Cell) Bridgett Wildermuth - Mt Joy – Transportation & Grain Originator bwildermuth@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1719 (Office) 309-945-6680 Scott Sallee – Galva – Grain Originator ssallee@rivervalleycoop.com 309-932-2081 (Office) 309-853-7637 (Cell) Phil Knuth - Martelle – Grain Originator pknuth@rivervalleycoop.com 319-482-3101 (Office) 563-357-4835 (Cell) Allison Ryan – Ryan – Grain Originator aryan@rivervalleycoop.com 563-932-2101 (Office) 563-920-3405 (Cell) Kale Petersen - Mt Joy – Regional Sales Manager kpetersen@rivervalleycoop.com 563-285-1736 (Office) 563-357-5903 (Cell)