If you’re going to take full advantage of high grain prices, it helps to have a partner who can help you navigate today’s volatile grain markets.
Count on River Valley Cooperative for basis contracts, minimum price contracts, hedge-to-arrive contracts, price-later contracts, priced-forward contracts, deferred payment contracts, direct deposit of grain checks, grain hauling services, and grain market insights.
River Valley provides two grain delivery options for marketing your grain, including:
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Select Pricing Program Bi-Weekly Updates John Stewart & Associates, February 22, 2019 Comments
To all, The market has felt like it was more volatile this week, but when you look at corn barely up a penny on the week and soybeans up a nickel you quickly see the market has accomplished very little. The exception would be wheat which is off 16-18c on the week as world values continue to view US offers too high. We got a whole host of information from the USDA in their Ag Outlook Conference which did very little to change the sentiment of the market. The bottom line with the data from the Outlook Conference is the corn balance will stay similar to fractionally tighter than this year while soybeans do very little to shrink the burdensome supplies plaguing the market this year. The key fundamental topic over the next few months will be US acreage intentions quickly followed by actual planting pace and spring weather. Very little fieldwork was done last fall and a vast majority of the corn belt is very wet. To make matters more concerning the forecast into the next 30 days continues to bring a steady line of storm systems across the corn belt. This is making an already nervous group of producers even more concerned on just how challenging this spring will be. Our bias for corn remains the be a buyer on dips whereas soybeans we prefer to be a seller of pops in the market. The ratio between soybeans and corn is 2.375 today which is calculated by dividing soybeans over corn (9.55/4.02). Historically, a ratio in the 2.3-2.4 range is considered neutral. If we are going to see a larger increase in corn acres at the expense of soybeans this ratio needs to decline to sub 2.2 in our view. If corn stays at 4.02 then soybeans would need to go to 8.85 to achieve a 2.2 ratio. Conversely, if beans stayed the same at 9.55 corn would need to go to 4.34 to achieve the same relationship. In the world of trade politics, the market has very little definitive change. But, the headlines out this week give the appearance we are closer to a trade pact with China. China’s statements about their willingness to buy large amounts of US Ag and Energy products is a positive influence. However, the market seems to be very reluctant to march higher on headlines. In the past several months buying headlines on the China-US negotiation has not been profitable it the ag commodity world. Our view remains that a trade deal with China will get done, but it will likely take longer than the March 1st deadline to get any specifics on the deal. This is likely still 30-60 days away. We also must be aware that a headline from this administration suggesting the negotiations have taken a turn for the worse will take the air out of the market and pressure ag commodity futures. This type of headline risk either bullish or bearish is still very real in the coming weeks. In the JSA Select Pricing™ program there were no new trades in the past 2 weeks. We continue to look to re-own CZ9 in the mid-3.90’s and did get very close to buying that back this week. When the market breaches the $4.05 area to the upside we will likely layer on another round of sales in all delivery periods selling the carry in the market. In soybeans we are likely still 50c or more away from comfortably re-owning any summer or fall sales on the books presently. We are also nearly 20c away from entering new sales for new crop. Please note we have changed the format of our attachments to this e-mail. As we get into overlapping crop years and program years we feel this new format is streamlined and would cause less confusion. Going forward we will have 1 attachment for corn, soybeans, and wheat reflecting all delivery periods and for each open crop year. Brian Burke John Stewart & Associates
Our program is designed to provide grain producers flexible pricing programs and delivery options based on the needs of your farming operation. Utilize futures and basis contracting to support pricing opportunities on grain marketing.
We offer transportation and logistics support for timely and cost effective delivery to market. In addition, utilize technology services aimed to improve the communication, execution and recordkeeping of your grain marketing supported by your Grain Marketing Team.
Communication • Receive emailed grain comments every morning and afternoon • Receive updates on government report data and market implications • Receive marketing bulletins and strategies
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Technology • River Valley Cooperative mobile-friendly website – rivervalleycoop.com • Sign up for direct deposit of grain settlements • Receive contracts electronically and access to other customized reports • Sign up for text alerts via your mobile phone • Leave a price offer or sell grain electronically through the River Valley Cooperative/DTN Offer Portal and market grain 24 hours a day
NEW! Try our Equivalent Price Calculator Tool. Plug in your data into the shaded boxes on the downloadable spreadsheet to see the price equivalent on your crops.
Marketing • 24-hour marketing capabilities • First access to HTA contracting, basis programs and other marketing opportunities • Best market pricing • Delivery options including farm pick-up programs
For more information on any of our grain services, contact River Valley’s grain marketing team:
Central Office Mike Moellenbeck 563-285-1720 mmoellenbeck@rivervalleycoop.com
Kale Petersen 563-285-1736 kpetersen@rivervalleycoop.com
Bridgett Wildermuth 563-285-1719 bwildermuth@rivervalleycoop.com
Galva Office Scott Sallee 309-932-2081 ext. 223 ssallee@rivervalleycoop.com
Olin/Martelle Offices Phil Knuth Olin 319-484-2341 / Martelle 319-482-3101 pknuth@rivervalleycoop.com
Ryan Office Allison Ryan 563-932-2101 aryan@rivervalleycoop.com