Grain Notes 6/24/19 PM Comments

Good afternoon. Both corn and soybeans were up today. July corn was up 4.50 cents to 4.4675 and December corn was up 3.75 cents to 4.5275. July soybeans were up 6.25 cents to 9.09 and November soybeans were up 5.25 to 9.3275. Wet weather continues to drive the market with soaked fields limiting late planting of beans and delaying wheat harvest out west. In outside markets the dollar index is lower .21 to 96.01, oil is up 41 cents to 57.84, and the Dow is up 12 points.

  • This afternoon's crop progress report shows corn 96% planted. 96% of what still remains to be the question which we will find out on Friday. Every state is over 91% except Ohio which is at 80%. It seems very clear the basis markets job will be to get bushels to the east this year. The surprise this week is in the conditions report which the crop at 56% good/excellent vs estimated at 59% and 59% last week. The good/excellent increase 3% in Iowa from 59% to 62% and decrease in Illinois from 51% to 47%. Indiana and Ohio also saw major reductions in good/excellent this week. The reduction in good/excellent will add support for the night session.
  • Soybeans planting progress advanced to 85% this week vs estimates of 88% and last week at 77%. Planting is still very slow out east with Ohio and Michigan below 70%. Iowa is 95% planted and Illinois is 79% planted. We got our first soybean rating with 54% good/excellent below the estimated of 58% and the average of 70% on this date. Iowa is 63% good/excellent vs average of 78% and Illinois is 42% vs the average of 78%. Looks like a higher overnight session for soybeans as well.
  • Funds were activate buyers again today buying an estimate 11,000 corn contracts, 7,000 soybeans contracts, and 7,000 wheat contracts. Their corn position is an estimated 137,030 contracts long and their soybean position is an estimated 57,275 short.
  • From a chart perspective, July corn faces initial resistance at Friday’s high, 4.54, followed by the contract high charted on the 17th, 4.6425.  Initial support lies at Thursday’s low, 4.3650, followed by the chart gap from May 28th, 4.0475-4.07.  The December corn contract faces initial resistance at Friday’s high, 4.6425, followed by the contract high charted on the 17th, 4.73.  Initial support lies at Thursday’s low, 4.49, followed by the chart gap from May 28th, 4.20-4.2250. 
  • July soybeans face initial resistance at the highs from Friday and Thursday, 9.1725 and 9.1750, followed by Tuesday’s high, 9.2150.  Initial support lies at the psychological 9.00 mark, followed by Thursday’s low, 8.9650.  The November soybean contract faces initial resistance at the highs from Friday and Thursday, 9.4275 and 9.43, followed by Tuesday’s high, 9.48.  Initial support lies at Thursday’s low, 9.2275. 

Have a great evening.

 

Mississippi River Update
The St. Louis harbor was able to be open briefly this past weekend, but with higher than expected rainfall  St. Louis harbor will be closing down again shutting off north bound barge freight. This will cut off soybean deliveries to most river terminals this week as most have not been able to load. Below is rundown of the area river terminals.

  • CHS-Davenport is currently taking Mar/April/May contracts on soybeans. River Valley Coop will also allow those with June contracts to ship also. With the lack of empties coming up CHS will probably get full sometime this week and then will be waiting on empties from St. Louis. They will be open Tuesday from 6a-11a and probably closed Wednesday. They hope to be open on Thursday/Friday as they have 4 barges coming up.
  • River Gulf is closed for soybeans as they were only able to get one barge and do not have any additional empties. They are thinking it will be next week before they are open.
  • ADM-Growmark Clinton will be closed this week as they also were only able to load one soybean barge also. They estimated it will next week before they open.
  • Bunge-Albany has allocated 30,000 bushels for River Valley Coop to ship this week. We have open up this 30,000 bushels to customers who had previously contracted soybeans. They also believe it will be next week before they can take any additional beans from River Valley.
  • Cargill soybean plant in Cedar Rapids is open like normal. Please note in the 2nd part of July they will be closed to replace a dump pit. 
  • Cargill-Lacon is closed due to lack of freight as well this week.


If anything changes we will let you know.