Grain Notes 8/19/2019 AM Comments

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  September corn was off 7 cents, settling at 3.64.  November soybeans were off 8 ¼ cents, settling at 8.7150.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 0.064, trading at 98.206.  September crude oil is up 26 cents, trading at $55.13 per barrel.  Precious metals are lower, except palladium.  Industrial metals are mixed.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 283 points, trading at 26,190. 
  • Better than expected rainfall across a healthy portion of the Corn Belt over the weekend weighed on futures overnight.  Crop conditions ratings are expected to improve this afternoon as a result.  Also, the 1-5 day forecast calls for more rain for Northern and Central Plains, Southern Midwest, and the Delta and the 6-10 day forecast currently shows above average rainfall for most of the Corn Belt. 
  • Bullish traders are hoping that this week’s ProFarmer Crop Tour will be supportive to futures.  The tour kicks off today with the eastern leg starting out in Western Ohio and the western leg beginning in Southern South Dakota.  Crop scouts will work their way towards each other throughout the week, ending in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday evening. 
  • As the tour moves across the Corn Belt, traders will be closely monitoring Twitter and other forms of reporting straight from the field, along with the findings released at their daily evening meetings.  Tonight’s meetings will be in Noblesville, Indiana, and Grand Island, Nebraska.  So, the opposing forces impacting grain and oilseed futures this week will be bearish weather/forecasts and the expectation of bullish yield data from ProFarmer. 
  • On Friday, the funds bought 16,000 contracts of corn, bought 4000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 3000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net long 19,500 contracts of corn, net short 72,200 contracts of soybeans, and net long 6000 contracts of wheat. 
  • From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at Thursday’s low, 3.5825, followed by the contract low charted on May 13th, 3.5250.  Initial resistance is at the chart gap from Monday night, 3.79-3.8525, followed by the key 4.00 mark.  The December corn contract finds initial support at Thursday’s low, 3.69, followed by the contract low charted on May 13th, 3.6375.  Initial resistance is at the chart gap from Monday night, 3.88-3.9275, followed by the important 4.00 level. 
  • November soybeans find initial support at the double-low from overnight and Friday, 8.7075, followed close behind by Thursday’s low, 8.7025, and then the low from August 5th, 8.5450.  Initial resistance is at Tuesday’s high, 8.9675, followed by the psychological 9.00 mark. 
  • Opening calls are lower. 
  • Following are weekend rainfall totals reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes:
    • Ryan, Delaware Co., IA                  0.70”
    • Wyoming, Jones Co., IA                 1.40”
    • Martelle, Jones Co., IA                   0.70”
    • Olin, Jones Co., IA                          1.50”
    • Stanwood, Cedar Co., IA                1.40”
    • Clarence, Cedar Co., IA                  0.40”
    • Lowden, Cedar Co., IA                    1.00”
    • Calamus, Clinton Co., IA                 1.00”
    • Tipton, Cedar Co., IA                       1.10”
    • Bennett, Cedar Co., IA                    1.00”
    • Sunbury, Cedar Co., IA                    0.30”
    • Galva, Henry Co., IL                        0.50”

Have a great Monday.