Grain Notes 11/14/18 AM Comments - Phil Knuth

Good Morning.  Corn futures were mostly unchanged and soybean futures were higher overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session up a quarter of a penny, settling at 3.6675.  January soybeans were up 5 ½ cents, settling at 8.8375.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is off 0.221, trading at 97.082.  December crude oil is up 66 cents, trading at $56.35 per barrel.  Precious metals are mixed with gold and palladium higher and platinum and silver lower.  Industrial metals are mixed with copper and tin higher and aluminum and zinc lower.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 95 points, trading at 25,425.  Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress Report showed corn and soybean harvest progress behind expectations.  The strength in the overnight trade was attributable to the report as well as a generic bounce following yesterday’s lower close.  Although the US Dollar is currently trading lower and crude oil is recovering slightly this morning, the overall trend of a strong US Dollar and weak crude oil is continuing to pressure commodities, in general.  This morning, while gleaning through news-wires in preparation for this report, I came across one commentator who mentioned, “we’re wondering what’s taking so long in terms of getting the remainder of the 2018 corn and soybean crop out of the field?”  That comment made me chuckle.  While it helps to explain the overnight bounce in futures, it is also a picture perfect example of how Chicago thinks.  Apparently, traders are unaware of the still daily occurrences of combines and grain carts being swallowed up by wet spots in fields.  On yesterday’s Crop Progress Report, the national corn harvest was estimated at 84% complete.  This figure is an eight point advancement from last week, is three points ahead of last year at this time, but is three points behind both the five-year average and the average trade estimate.  The national soybean crop was estimated to be 88% harvested.  This figure is a five point advancement from the last week, but is three points behind the average trade estimate and five points behind both the five-year average and harvest progress at this time one year ago.  Yesterday, the funds sold 8000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net long 2500 contracts of corn, net short 50,000 contracts of soybeans, and net short 57,000 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn came within a half of a penny of testing initial support, 3.65, yesterday.  Further support lies at the key 3.60 mark.  Resistance is at 3.70.  January soybeans continue to oscillate back and forth around the key 8.80 mark which, depending on the day, acts as initial support or resistance.  Underlying support is found at Thursday’s low, 8.64.  Key resistance is at the psychological 9.00 mark that was last tested on Friday, November 2nd.  Opening calls are higher.
 
Have a great Wednesday.